FA Cup · 1/128-finals
York vs Northampton
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · York Community Stadium, York
York host Northampton on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (FA Cup); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: York 39%, draw 29%, Northampton 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: York €153K, Northampton €275K.
- Home advantage makes York the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- League Two: O. Dale is the highest-rated forward (1914).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. York goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
Team Elo: York 1581 · Northampton 1647
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
York · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1602
Northampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1782
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
York
5th in League Two · 20 pts from 13
- 27 OctLBarnet England League Two1601
- 24 OctWPort Vale England League Two1567
- 20 OctDAccrington ST England League Two1578
- 17 OctDNewport County England League Two1538
- 10 OctDNorthampton England League Two1570
Northampton
19th in League Two · 13 pts from 11
- 24 OctWColchester England League Two1620
- 20 OctLTranmere England League Two1609
- 17 OctWGrimsby England League Two1529
- 10 OctDYork England League Two1523
- 6 OctLCambridge United England EFL Trophy1484
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –