League Two · Regular Season - 10
York 1–1 Northampton
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · York`s LNER Community Stadium, York
YorkTeam 1569NorthamptonTeam 1517We gave York 45% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 10'Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 1479 +11Northampton:Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 1479 +11
- 40'josh powell 1540 +4Northampton:josh powell 1540 +4
- Harry Boyes 1746 −9*49'York:Harry Boyes 1746 −9*
- jovan malcolm 1334 −8* for Joey Grey 1584 −8*59'York:jovan malcolm 1334 −8* for Joey Grey 1584 −8*
- Jeff King 1551 −10* for Joseph Rabole Felix 1334 −8*59'York:Jeff King 1551 −10* for Joseph Rabole Felix 1334 −8*
- 61'Max Dyche 1627 +1 for Janoi Donacien 1578 −1Northampton:Max Dyche 1627 +1 for Janoi Donacien 1578 −1
- 70'Nathaniel Opoku 1549 +1 for M. Warhurst 992 +9Northampton:Nathaniel Opoku 1549 +1 for M. Warhurst 992 +9
- 70'Tyrese Fornah 1640 −7* for Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 1479 +11Northampton:Tyrese Fornah 1640 −7* for Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 1479 +11
- Frankie Maguire 1410 −8* for Alex Hunt 1603 −8*73'York:Frankie Maguire 1410 −8* for Alex Hunt 1603 −8*
- Jack Hunt 1506 −15* for Ryan Fallowfield 1536 −10*74'York:Jack Hunt 1506 −15* for Ryan Fallowfield 1536 −10*
- 81'James Maxwell 1746 −7* for josh powell 1540 +4Northampton:James Maxwell 1746 −7* for josh powell 1540 +4
- 81'Sam Hoskins 1504 −5 for Owen Dale 1907 +3Northampton:Sam Hoskins 1504 −5 for Owen Dale 1907 +3
- Ollie Pearce 1439 −10* assist Jeff King 1551 −10*85'York:Ollie Pearce 1439 −10* assist Jeff King 1551 −10*
- Frankie Maguire 1410 −8*86'York:Frankie Maguire 1410 −8*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 45% · 28% · 27%(York · draw · Northampton)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: York €167K, Northampton €231K.
- Home advantage made York the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Northampton's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
York
6th in League Two · 14 pts from 8
- 26 SepWGillingham England League Two1507
- 22 SepDRotherham England EFL Trophy1417
- 19 SepLChesterfield England League Two1532
- 15 SepLNewcastle United U21 England EFL Trophy1426
- 12 SepWSwindon Town England League Two1452
Northampton
22nd in League Two · 6 pts from 7
- 6 OctLCambridge United England EFL Trophy1484
- 19 SepLRotherham England League Two1600
- 12 SepLShrewsbury England League Two1506
- 5 SepWNewport County England League Two1528
- 29 AugDGillingham England League Two1442
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 14 /8 | 59.4 | <1% | 4% | 8% | 17th |
| Northampton | 6 /7 | 53.1 | 0% | 1% | 29% | 22nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
York · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1591
Northampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1580
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.