League Two · Regular Season - 12
York vs Accrington ST
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · York`s LNER Community Stadium, York
York host Accrington ST on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: York 44%, draw 28%, Accrington ST 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: York €177K, Accrington ST €150K.
- Accrington ST are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. York goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: York 1542 · Accrington ST 1506
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
York · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1543
Accrington ST · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1576
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
York
4th in League Two · 16 pts from 10
- 17 OctDNewport County England League Two1538
- 10 OctDNorthampton England League Two1570
- 26 SepWGillingham England League Two1507
- 22 SepDRotherham England EFL Trophy1417
- 19 SepLChesterfield England League Two1532
Accrington ST
10th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctWGillingham England League Two1484
- 10 OctDOldham England League Two1463
- 6 OctDSalford City England EFL Trophy1438
- 3 OctWCheltenham England League Two1436
- 26 SepDSwindon Town England League Two1424
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 16 /10 | 57.0 | <1% | 2% | 14% | 19th |
| Accrington ST | 14 /11 | 51.4 | 0% | <1% | 40% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: direct