Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
York United vs Atlético Ottawa
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · York Lions Stadium
York United host Atlético Ottawa on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Canadian Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: York United 39%, draw 29%, Atlético Ottawa 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: York United €197K, Atlético Ottawa €201K.
- Home advantage makes York United the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Canadian Premier League): York United rank #7 of 7, Atlético Ottawa #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. York United goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: York United 1487 · Atlético Ottawa 1515
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
York United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1560
Atlético Ottawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1658
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
York United
7th in Canadian Premier League · 27 pts from 27
- 16 OctLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1464
- 12 OctLForge Canada Premier League1514
- 7 OctLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1524
- 3 OctWCavalry FC Canada Premier League1513
- 27 SepLPacific FC Canada Premier League1480
Atlético Ottawa
3rd in Canadian Premier League · 43 pts from 27
- 17 OctLForge Canada Premier League1497
- 11 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1493
- 30 SepWCavalry FC Canada Premier League1444
- 26 SepWHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1393
- 20 SepLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1403
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 27 /27 | 28.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 7th |
| Atlético Ottawa | 43 /27 | 44.2 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
York United: balanced profile (how Mauro Antunes Eustáquio plays) · Atlético Ottawa: balanced profile (how Gustavo José da Silva Leal plays)