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League One · Regular Season - 10

Wycombe 1–4 Luton

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Adams Park, High Wycombe

Wycombe crestWycombeTeam 1786
1–4
Full time
HT 0–2
Luton crestLutonTeam 1792

Match story

Wycombe · draw · Luton

Before kick-off: 39% · 33% · 28%

Live chances: Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Wycombe 39%, draw 33%, Luton 28%3' · 0–0 · Wycombe 39%, draw 34%, Luton 28%4' · 0–0 · Wycombe 39%, draw 34%, Luton 28%5' · 0–0 · Wycombe 39%, draw 34%, Luton 27%6' · 0–0 · Wycombe 39%, draw 34%, Luton 27%7' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 34%, Luton 27%8' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 34%, Luton 27%9' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 34%, Luton 27%10' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 35%, Luton 27%11' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 35%, Luton 27%13' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 35%, Luton 27%14' · 0–0 · Wycombe 38%, draw 35%, Luton 27%16' · 0–0 · Wycombe 37%, draw 36%, Luton 27%17' · 0–1 · Wycombe 18%, draw 28%, Luton 55%18' · 0–1 · Wycombe 17%, draw 28%, Luton 55%19' · 0–1 · Wycombe 17%, draw 28%, Luton 55%20' · 0–1 · Wycombe 17%, draw 28%, Luton 55%21' · 0–1 · Wycombe 17%, draw 28%, Luton 56%22' · 0–1 · Wycombe 17%, draw 28%, Luton 56%23' · 0–1 · Wycombe 16%, draw 28%, Luton 56%24' · 0–1 · Wycombe 16%, draw 28%, Luton 56%25' · 0–1 · Wycombe 16%, draw 28%, Luton 56%26' · 0–1 · Wycombe 16%, draw 28%, Luton 57%27' · 0–1 · Wycombe 16%, draw 28%, Luton 57%28' · 0–2 · Wycombe 3%, draw 10%, Luton 87%29' · 0–2 · Wycombe 3%, draw 10%, Luton 87%30' · 0–2 · Wycombe 3%, draw 10%, Luton 87%31' · 0–2 · Wycombe 3%, draw 10%, Luton 88%32' · 0–2 · Wycombe 3%, draw 10%, Luton 88%34' · 0–2 · Wycombe 3%, draw 9%, Luton 88%35' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 9%, Luton 88%36' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 9%, Luton 89%37' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 9%, Luton 89%38' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 9%, Luton 89%39' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 9%, Luton 89%40' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 89%41' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 90%42' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 90%43' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 90%44' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 90%45' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 90%45+1' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 8%, Luton 91%45+3' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 7%, Luton 91%45+4' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 7%, Luton 91%HT · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 7%, Luton 91%46' · 0–2 · Wycombe 2%, draw 7%, Luton 91%47' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 98%48' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 98%50' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%51' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%52' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%53' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%54' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%55' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%56' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%57' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%58' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%59' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%60' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%61' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%62' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%63' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 1%, Luton 99%64' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 99%65' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 99%66' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%67' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%68' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%69' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%70' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%71' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%72' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%73' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%74' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%75' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%77' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%78' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%79' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%80' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%81' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%82' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%83' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%84' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%85' · 0–3 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%86' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%87' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%88' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%89' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90+1' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90+2' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90+3' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90+4' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90+5' · 0–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%90+6' · 1–4 · Wycombe 0%, draw 0%, Luton 100%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Wycombe 39% to win: Luton won.

  1. 16'Luton:Kasey Palmer 1939 +25* assist Jamie Donley 1995 +34
  2. 27'Luton:Jamie Donley 1995 +34 assist Nahki Wells 1806 +42*
  3. 40'Luton:Kal Naismith 1865 +4
  4. 45'Luton:Joseph Johnson 1831 +4* for Kal Naismith 1865 +4
  5. 45'Wycombe:Jack Grimmer 1837 −8 for S. Parker 1608 0
  6. 45'Wycombe:Cauley Woodrow 1759 −3 for Ewan Henderson 1849 −5
  7. 46'Luton:Nahki Wells 1806 +42* assist Jordan Clark 1956 +38
  8. 57'Wycombe:Caolan Boyd-Munce 1894 −13* for Josh Scowen 1775 −14*
  9. 57'Wycombe:Malik Mothersille 1828 −2 for Steve Cook 1743 −15*
  10. 58'Luton:Isaiah Jones 1926 −3* for George Johnston 1948 +26
  11. 71'Luton:Devante Cole 1709 +16 for Nahki Wells 1806 +42*
  12. 71'Luton:Jake Richards 1865 +4 for Kasey Palmer 1939 +25*
  13. 76'Wycombe:Emre Tezgel 1617 0 for Jayden Wareham 1781 −11*
  14. 76'Luton:Liam Walsh 1894 +18
  15. 83'Luton:E. Lawrence 1670 +3 for Tudor Mendel-Idowu 1156 +89
  16. 84'Luton:Devante Cole 1709 +16
  17. 90+5'Wycombe:Jack Grimmer 1837 −8 assist Aaron Morley 1815 −17

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-1-4-2Formations4-1-4-1
GC. Hazard1922−27*
DD. Casey1876−14
DS. Cook1743−15*
DC. Taylor1817−5
MJ. Scowen1775−14*
MSam Parker16080
MA. Morley1815−17
ME. Henderson1849−5
MD. Harvie1865−21*
FF. Onyedinma1864−22*
FJ. Wareham1781−11*
CT. Hounsell16420
GJ. Shea1663+120
DM. Andersen1935+47
DH. Odoffin1939+15
DG. Johnston1948+26
DK. Naismith1865+4
ML. Walsh1894+18
MT. Mendel-Idowu1156+89
MJ. Clark1956+38
MK. Palmer1939+25*
MJ. Donley1995+34
FN. Wells1806+42*
CJ. Wilshere1731+66
Before kick-off: 39% · 33% · 28%(Wycombe · draw · Luton)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 0–0 (15%); the result 1–4 had <1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Wycombe €657K, Luton €621K.
  • Home advantage made Wycombe the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.
  • Wycombe were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Wycombe

12th in League One · 10 pts from 8

  • 6 OctWBristol Rovers 1637
  • 26 SepDReading 1836
  • 19 SepWWigan 1827
  • 15 SepWChelsea U21 1723
  • 12 SepWLeyton Orient 1827

Luton

16th in League One · 8 pts from 7

  • 3 OctDColchester 1729
  • 22 SepWIpswich Town U21 1767
  • 19 SepLBradford 1807
  • 10 SepLStevenage 1867
  • 5 SepDLeyton Orient 1884

Season outlook

From the League One simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Wycombe10 /865.53%20%2%8th
Luton8 /765.53%20%2%6th
Wycombe
Luton

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League One

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

D. Casey
D. Casey

Wycombe · +1.1 (Good) · Elo 1890

L. Walsh
L. Walsh

Luton · +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 1877

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Tom Hounsell

Coach DNA: –

Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Wycombe: balanced profile (how Tom Hounsell plays) · Luton: dribble-heavy (how Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.