Championship · Regular Season - 12
Wolves vs Watford
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Wolves host Watford on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Wolves 55%, draw 25%, Watford 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Wolves €7.7M, Watford €3.4M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Championship matchday 12: 160 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Wolves goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Wolves 2107 · Watford 1947
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Wolves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2171
Watford · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2029
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Wolves
8th in Championship · 17 pts from 10
- 16 OctWBurnley England Championship1984
- 13 OctLBolton England Championship2104
- 10 OctLMiddlesbrough England Championship2123
- 20 SepWWest Brom England Championship2119
- 16 SepLEverton England League Cup1849
Watford
20th in Championship · 11 pts from 11
- 17 OctWCharlton England Championship1979
- 13 OctLCardiff England Championship1956
- 10 OctLBurnley England Championship1923
- 18 SepLBristol City England Championship1927
- 12 SepLStoke City England Championship1976
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 17 /10 | 78.3 | 11% | 64% | 0% | 2nd |
| Watford | 11 /11 | 56.5 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Wolves: balanced profile (how Paulo César da Silva Peixoto plays) · Watford: dribble-heavy (how Alessio Dionisi plays)