Championship · Regular Season - 17
Wolves vs Derby
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Wolves host Derby on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Wolves 64%, draw 22%, Derby 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Wolves €8.7M, Derby €2.6M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Championship matchday 17: 264 points.
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Wolves goals first.
- 2–012%
- 1–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 3–16%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.7 pts
Team Elo: Wolves 2120 · Derby 1856
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Wolves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2166
Derby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1901
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Wolves
4th in Championship · 28 pts from 15
- 7 NovDWrexham England Championship2127
- 4 NovWBristol City England Championship2133
- 31 OctWCardiff England Championship2110
- 24 OctWWatford England Championship2087
- 20 OctDPortsmouth England Championship2003
Derby
23rd in Championship · 10 pts from 15
- 6 NovWBolton England Championship1864
- 3 NovLNorwich England Championship1804
- 31 OctLMillwall England Championship1842
- 24 OctDSheffield Utd England Championship1835
- 17 OctLStoke City England Championship1868
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 28 /15 | 80.3 | 22% | 67% | 0% | 1st |
| Derby | 10 /15 | 43.8 | 0% | 0% | 68% | 23rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Wolves: balanced profile (how César Peixoto plays) · Derby: direct (how J. Eustace plays)