Eredivisie · Regular Season - 12
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
Willem II host PEC Zwolle on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Willem II 41%, draw 29%, PEC Zwolle 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Willem II €786K, PEC Zwolle €848K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Eredivisie): Willem II rank #16 of 18, PEC Zwolle #3.
- PEC Zwolle's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Willem II goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Willem II 1708 · PEC Zwolle 1707
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Willem II · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1768
PEC Zwolle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1746
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Willem II
18th in Eredivisie · 2 pts from 9
- 17 OctLSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1716
- 11 OctLUtrecht Eredivisie1744
- 19 SepLFortuna Sittard Eredivisie1741
- 15 SepLAjax Eredivisie1753
- 11 SepDAZ Alkmaar Eredivisie1739
PEC Zwolle
15th in Eredivisie · 7 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1674
- 11 OctLCambuur Eredivisie1727
- 18 SepLGroningen Eredivisie1720
- 13 SepLFeyenoord Eredivisie1704
- 4 SepDSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1745
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 2 /9 | 27.8 | 0% | 0% | 77% | 18th |
| PEC Zwolle | 7 /9 | 33.0 | 0% | 0% | 44% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Willem II: balanced profile (how John Stegeman plays) · PEC Zwolle: balanced profile (how Henry van der Vegt plays)