League One · Regular Season - 15
Wigan vs Barnsley
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan
Wigan host Barnsley on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Wigan 42%, draw 29%, Barnsley 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Wigan €385K, Barnsley €417K.
- Home advantage makes Wigan the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (League One): Wigan rank #23 of 24, Barnsley #2.
- Wigan's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Wigan goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Wigan 1686 · Barnsley 1688
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Wigan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.4 (Average) · Elo 1785
Barnsley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1736
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Wigan
24th in League One · 7 pts from 12
- 27 OctLLeicester England League One1657
- 24 OctLHuddersfield England League One1726
- 20 OctLOxford United England League One1648
- 17 OctWReading England League One1611
- 10 OctLStevenage England League One1615
Barnsley
23rd in League One · 8 pts from 11
- 24 OctLReading England League One1695
- 20 OctLLuton England League One1726
- 17 OctLCambridge United England League One1723
- 10 OctLStockport County England League One1717
- 6 OctLFleetwood Town England EFL Trophy1473
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan | 7 /12 | 44.2 | 0% | 0% | 64% | 24th |
| Barnsley | 8 /11 | 46.3 | 0% | 0% | 52% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Wigan: balanced profile (how G. Caldwell plays) · Barnsley: balanced profile (how Daniel Stendel plays)