Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 15
Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin
Mon 23 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Wieczysta Kraków host Motor Lublin on Mon 23 Nov 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Wieczysta Kraków 39%, draw 29%, Motor Lublin 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Wieczysta Kraków €532K, Motor Lublin €588K.
- Home advantage makes Wieczysta Kraków the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Motor Lublin are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Wieczysta Kraków goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- 1–07%
- 2–27%
- 0–17%
- Other scores50%
Team Elo: Wieczysta Kraków 1665 · Motor Lublin 1722
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Wieczysta Kraków · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1613
Motor Lublin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1697
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Wieczysta Kraków
18th in Ekstraklasa · 8 pts from 14
- 7 NovLGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1641
- 31 OctLJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1658
- 25 OctLSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1685
- 16 OctLRaków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa1683
- 12 OctLGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1670
Motor Lublin
10th in Ekstraklasa · 19 pts from 14
- 6 NovWWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1722
- 30 OctWCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1693
- 23 OctDZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1687
- 17 OctWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1671
- 12 OctWRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1640
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wieczysta Kraków | 8 /14 | 33.1 | 0% | 0% | 67% | 18th |
| Motor Lublin | 19 /14 | 45.2 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile