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Championship · Regular Season - 9

West Brom 0–1 Birmingham

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

West Brom crestWest BromTeam 1898
0–1
Full time
HT 0–1
Birmingham crestBirminghamTeam 2020

Match story

West Brom · draw · Birmingham

Before kick-off: 31% · 33% · 37%

Live chances: West Brom 0%, draw 2%, Birmingham 98% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · West Brom 31%, draw 33%, Birmingham 37%2' · 0–0 · West Brom 31%, draw 33%, Birmingham 37%3' · 0–0 · West Brom 31%, draw 33%, Birmingham 37%4' · 0–0 · West Brom 31%, draw 33%, Birmingham 36%5' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 33%, Birmingham 36%6' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 33%, Birmingham 36%7' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 33%, Birmingham 36%8' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 34%, Birmingham 36%9' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 34%, Birmingham 36%10' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 34%, Birmingham 36%11' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 34%, Birmingham 36%12' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 34%, Birmingham 36%13' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 34%, Birmingham 36%14' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 35%, Birmingham 35%15' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 35%, Birmingham 35%16' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 35%, Birmingham 35%17' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 35%, Birmingham 35%18' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 35%, Birmingham 35%19' · 0–0 · West Brom 30%, draw 36%, Birmingham 35%20' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 36%, Birmingham 35%21' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 36%, Birmingham 35%22' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 36%, Birmingham 34%23' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 36%, Birmingham 34%24' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 37%, Birmingham 34%25' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 37%, Birmingham 34%26' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 37%, Birmingham 34%27' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 37%, Birmingham 34%28' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 38%, Birmingham 34%29' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 38%, Birmingham 34%30' · 0–0 · West Brom 29%, draw 38%, Birmingham 33%32' · 0–0 · West Brom 28%, draw 39%, Birmingham 33%34' · 0–0 · West Brom 28%, draw 39%, Birmingham 33%35' · 0–0 · West Brom 28%, draw 40%, Birmingham 33%36' · 0–0 · West Brom 28%, draw 40%, Birmingham 32%37' · 0–0 · West Brom 28%, draw 40%, Birmingham 32%38' · 0–0 · West Brom 28%, draw 40%, Birmingham 32%39' · 0–0 · West Brom 27%, draw 41%, Birmingham 32%40' · 0–0 · West Brom 27%, draw 41%, Birmingham 32%41' · 0–0 · West Brom 27%, draw 41%, Birmingham 31%42' · 0–1 · West Brom 9%, draw 24%, Birmingham 67%43' · 0–1 · West Brom 9%, draw 24%, Birmingham 67%44' · 0–1 · West Brom 9%, draw 24%, Birmingham 68%45' · 0–1 · West Brom 9%, draw 24%, Birmingham 68%45+1' · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 24%, Birmingham 68%45+2' · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 23%, Birmingham 68%45+3' · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 23%, Birmingham 68%HT · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 23%, Birmingham 69%46' · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 23%, Birmingham 69%47' · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 23%, Birmingham 69%48' · 0–1 · West Brom 8%, draw 23%, Birmingham 69%49' · 0–1 · West Brom 7%, draw 23%, Birmingham 69%50' · 0–1 · West Brom 7%, draw 23%, Birmingham 70%51' · 0–1 · West Brom 7%, draw 23%, Birmingham 70%52' · 0–1 · West Brom 7%, draw 23%, Birmingham 70%53' · 0–1 · West Brom 7%, draw 23%, Birmingham 71%54' · 0–1 · West Brom 6%, draw 23%, Birmingham 71%55' · 0–1 · West Brom 6%, draw 22%, Birmingham 71%56' · 0–1 · West Brom 6%, draw 22%, Birmingham 72%57' · 0–1 · West Brom 6%, draw 22%, Birmingham 72%58' · 0–1 · West Brom 6%, draw 22%, Birmingham 73%59' · 0–1 · West Brom 5%, draw 22%, Birmingham 73%60' · 0–1 · West Brom 5%, draw 21%, Birmingham 73%61' · 0–1 · West Brom 5%, draw 21%, Birmingham 74%62' · 0–1 · West Brom 5%, draw 21%, Birmingham 74%63' · 0–1 · West Brom 5%, draw 21%, Birmingham 75%64' · 0–1 · West Brom 4%, draw 21%, Birmingham 75%65' · 0–1 · West Brom 4%, draw 20%, Birmingham 75%66' · 0–1 · West Brom 4%, draw 20%, Birmingham 76%67' · 0–1 · West Brom 4%, draw 20%, Birmingham 76%68' · 0–1 · West Brom 4%, draw 19%, Birmingham 77%69' · 0–1 · West Brom 3%, draw 19%, Birmingham 77%70' · 0–1 · West Brom 3%, draw 19%, Birmingham 78%71' · 0–1 · West Brom 3%, draw 19%, Birmingham 78%72' · 0–1 · West Brom 3%, draw 18%, Birmingham 79%73' · 0–1 · West Brom 3%, draw 18%, Birmingham 79%74' · 0–1 · West Brom 3%, draw 17%, Birmingham 80%75' · 0–1 · West Brom 2%, draw 17%, Birmingham 81%76' · 0–1 · West Brom 2%, draw 17%, Birmingham 81%77' · 0–1 · West Brom 2%, draw 16%, Birmingham 82%78' · 0–1 · West Brom 2%, draw 16%, Birmingham 82%79' · 0–1 · West Brom 2%, draw 15%, Birmingham 83%80' · 0–1 · West Brom 2%, draw 15%, Birmingham 84%81' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 14%, Birmingham 84%82' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 13%, Birmingham 85%83' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 13%, Birmingham 86%84' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 12%, Birmingham 87%85' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 12%, Birmingham 88%86' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 11%, Birmingham 88%87' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 10%, Birmingham 89%88' · 0–1 · West Brom 1%, draw 9%, Birmingham 90%89' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 8%, Birmingham 91%90' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 8%, Birmingham 92%90+1' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 7%, Birmingham 93%90+2' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 6%, Birmingham 94%90+3' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 4%, Birmingham 96%90+4' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 3%, Birmingham 97%90+5' · 0–1 · West Brom 0%, draw 2%, Birmingham 98%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 2% · 98%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Birmingham 37% to win: they did.

  1. 8'West Brom:Rabby Nzingoula 1825 −8*
  2. 31'Birmingham:Alex Cochrane 2097 +2*
  3. 41'Birmingham:August Priske 1943 +17* (pen.)
  4. 55'Birmingham:Patrick Roberts 1974 +7* for Liam Millar 2042 +13*
  5. 69'Birmingham:Marvin Ducksch 1924 −7* for August Priske 1943 +17*
  6. 69'Birmingham:Max Bird 1895 −3* for Jhon Elmer Solís Romero 1915 +7*
  7. 70'West Brom:Barney Stewart 1657 −8* for Aune Heggebo 1962 −8*
  8. 75'Birmingham:Carlos Vicente 2083 +2*
  9. 79'Birmingham:Jay Stansfield 2061 +3*
  10. 79'West Brom:Isaac Price 2170 −1 for Felix Horn Myhre 1840 −8*
  11. 80'West Brom:Harry Whitwell 1747 −8* for Toby Collyer 1534 −8*
  12. 85'Birmingham:Taylor·Gardner Hickman 1907 −7* for Jay Stansfield 2061 +3*
  13. 85'Birmingham:Demarai Gray 1965 −9* for Carlos Vicente 2083 +2*
  14. 89'West Brom:J. Morgan 1907 −8*
  15. 89'Birmingham:Bright Osayi-Samuel 2111 0*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-2-3-1
GM. O’Leary2031−16*
DB. Pereira1924−8*
DN. Phillips2012−14*
DC. Mepham1858−9*
DC. Styles2000−9*
MO. Diakité1958−8*
MR. Nzingoula1825−8*
MF. Myhre1840−8*
MTobias Christopher Collyer1534−8*
FA. Heggebø1962−8*
FJ. Morgan1907−8*
CJ. Morrison1765−8*
GJ. Beadle2088+3*
DB. Osayi-Samuel21110*
DP. Neumann2092+19*
DC. Klarer2098+20*
DA. Cochrane2097+2*
MT. Iwata2027+4*
MJ. Solis1915+7*
MCarlos Vicente2083+2*
MJ. Stansfield2061+3*
ML. Millar2042+13*
FA. Priske1943+17*
CC. Davies2064+14*
Before kick-off: 31% · 33% · 37%(West Brom · draw · Birmingham)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 0–1 had 12%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: West Brom €2.5M, Birmingham €4.4M.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

West Brom

6th in Championship · 14 pts from 8

  • 20 SepLWolves 1952
  • 12 SepDQPR 1902
  • 9 SepWDerby 1947
  • 5 SepWWatford 1909
  • 29 AugLMiddlesbrough 1955

Birmingham

10th in Championship · 11 pts from 8

  • 19 SepDMiddlesbrough 2049
  • 12 SepWDerby 2024
  • 9 SepLNorwich 2030
  • 6 SepDWolves 2043
  • 28 AugWWrexham 2017

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
West Brom14 /863.21%8%4%10th
Birmingham11 /869.23%25%1%5th
West Brom
Birmingham

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

N. Phillips
N. Phillips

West Brom · +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 2026

L. Millar
L. Millar

Birmingham · +1.7 (Good) · Elo 2029

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

James Morrison

Coach DNA: –

Chris Davies

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

West Brom: balanced profile (how James Morrison plays) · Birmingham: possession-based (how Chris Davies plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.