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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Weser-Stadion, Bremen

Werder Bremen crestWerder BremenTeam 2020
2–2
Full time
HT 0–2
SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07Team 1923

Match story

Werder Bremen · draw · SC Paderborn 07

Before kick-off: 48% · 27% · 25%

Live chances: Werder Bremen 3%, draw 95%, SC Paderborn 07 2% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 48%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 25%2' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 48%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%3' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 48%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%4' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 48%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%5' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 48%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%6' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%7' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%8' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%9' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 26%10' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%11' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%12' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 47%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%13' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 46%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%14' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 46%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%15' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 46%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%16' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 46%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 26%17' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 46%, draw 29%, SC Paderborn 07 26%18' · 0–0 · Werder Bremen 46%, draw 29%, SC Paderborn 07 26%19' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 28%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 45%20' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 28%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 46%21' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 27%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 46%22' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 27%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 46%23' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 27%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 46%24' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 27%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 46%25' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 26%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 47%26' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 26%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 47%27' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 26%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 47%28' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 25%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 47%29' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 25%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 48%30' · 0–1 · Werder Bremen 25%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 48%31' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 7%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 79%32' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 7%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 79%33' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 7%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 79%34' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 80%35' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 80%36' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 80%37' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 14%, SC Paderborn 07 80%38' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 13%, SC Paderborn 07 81%39' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 13%, SC Paderborn 07 81%40' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 13%, SC Paderborn 07 81%41' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 13%, SC Paderborn 07 82%42' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 13%, SC Paderborn 07 82%43' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 13%, SC Paderborn 07 82%44' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 83%45' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 83%45+1' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 83%45+2' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%45+3' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%45+4' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%45+5' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%45+6' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%HT · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%46' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 12%, SC Paderborn 07 84%47' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 11%, SC Paderborn 07 85%48' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 11%, SC Paderborn 07 85%49' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 11%, SC Paderborn 07 85%50' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 4%, draw 11%, SC Paderborn 07 86%51' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 11%, SC Paderborn 07 86%52' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 10%, SC Paderborn 07 86%53' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 10%, SC Paderborn 07 87%54' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 10%, SC Paderborn 07 87%55' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 10%, SC Paderborn 07 88%56' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 9%, SC Paderborn 07 88%57' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 2%, draw 9%, SC Paderborn 07 89%58' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 2%, draw 9%, SC Paderborn 07 89%59' · 0–2 · Werder Bremen 2%, draw 9%, SC Paderborn 07 89%60' · 1–2 · Werder Bremen 13%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 60%61' · 1–2 · Werder Bremen 12%, draw 28%, SC Paderborn 07 60%62' · 1–2 · Werder Bremen 12%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 61%63' · 1–2 · Werder Bremen 11%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 62%64' · 1–2 · Werder Bremen 11%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 62%65' · 1–2 · Werder Bremen 10%, draw 27%, SC Paderborn 07 63%66' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 31%, draw 48%, SC Paderborn 07 21%67' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 31%, draw 49%, SC Paderborn 07 21%68' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 30%, draw 49%, SC Paderborn 07 21%69' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 30%, draw 50%, SC Paderborn 07 20%70' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 29%, draw 51%, SC Paderborn 07 20%71' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 28%, draw 52%, SC Paderborn 07 20%72' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 28%, draw 53%, SC Paderborn 07 19%73' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 27%, draw 54%, SC Paderborn 07 19%74' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 26%, draw 55%, SC Paderborn 07 19%75' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 26%, draw 56%, SC Paderborn 07 18%76' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 25%, draw 57%, SC Paderborn 07 18%77' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 24%, draw 58%, SC Paderborn 07 17%78' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 24%, draw 60%, SC Paderborn 07 17%79' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 23%, draw 61%, SC Paderborn 07 16%80' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 22%, draw 62%, SC Paderborn 07 16%81' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 21%, draw 64%, SC Paderborn 07 15%82' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 20%, draw 65%, SC Paderborn 07 15%83' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 19%, draw 67%, SC Paderborn 07 14%84' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 18%, draw 68%, SC Paderborn 07 13%85' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 17%, draw 70%, SC Paderborn 07 13%86' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 16%, draw 72%, SC Paderborn 07 12%87' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 15%, draw 74%, SC Paderborn 07 11%88' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 14%, draw 76%, SC Paderborn 07 10%89' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 13%, draw 78%, SC Paderborn 07 9%90' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 11%, draw 80%, SC Paderborn 07 8%90+1' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 10%, draw 83%, SC Paderborn 07 7%90+2' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 8%, draw 86%, SC Paderborn 07 6%90+3' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 6%, draw 89%, SC Paderborn 07 5%90+4' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 5%, draw 92%, SC Paderborn 07 4%90+5' · 2–2 · Werder Bremen 3%, draw 95%, SC Paderborn 07 2%

Last reading, 90+5': 3% · 95% · 2%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Werder Bremen 48% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 4'SC Paderborn 07:Stefano Marino 1833 +11
  2. 18'SC Paderborn 07:Stefano Marino 1833 +11 assist Steffen Tigges 1892 +10
  3. 30'SC Paderborn 07:Steffen Tigges 1892 +10
  4. 45'Werder Bremen:Mitchell Weiser 2082 −5 for Iván San José Cantalejo 1873 0
  5. 59'Werder Bremen:Niclas Füllkrug 2041 −8 assist Eren Dinkci 2066 −2
  6. 63'Werder Bremen:Cédric Itten 1805 −9* for Eren Dinkci 2066 −2
  7. 65'Werder Bremen:Niclas Füllkrug 2041 −8 (pen.)
  8. 66'SC Paderborn 07:Rayan Philippe 1904 +1 for Stefano Marino 1833 +11
  9. 66'SC Paderborn 07:Tom Baack 1833 −7* for Laurin Ulrich 1869 +4
  10. 75'SC Paderborn 07:Ruben Müller 1725 −6* for Gabriel Vidović 2059 +2
  11. 75'SC Paderborn 07:Marvin Pieringer 1910 0 for Steffen Tigges 1892 +10
  12. 79'Werder Bremen:Dariusz Stalmach 1451 0 for Ludovit Reis 1995 −1
  13. 86'Werder Bremen:Youri Regeer 2145 −5
  14. 88'Werder Bremen:Paul Erevbenagie 1693 0 for Youri Regeer 2145 −5
  15. 88'SC Paderborn 07:Jonah Sticker 1705 0 for Mattes Hansen 1978 +3

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations3-5-2
GK. Hein19160
DA. Pieper2075−5
DM. Friedl2075−2
DO. Deman2026−2
MArthur2055−1
ML. Reis1995−1
MY. Regeer2145−5
MM. Grüll2092−3
ME. Dinkçi2066−2
MChuky San José18730
FN. Füllkrug2041−8
CD. Thioune2028−1
GN. Noll1972+10
DJ. ter Horst1861+5
DT. Scheller2021+8
DM. Hansen1978+3
ML. Curda2038+3
ML. Ulrich1869+4
MS. Castañeda2018+3
MG. Vidović2059+2
MR. Obermair1956+1
FS. Tigges1892+10
FS. Marino1833+11
CR. Kettemann1979+6
Before kick-off: 48% · 27% · 25%(Werder Bremen · draw · SC Paderborn 07)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Werder Bremen €6.6M, SC Paderborn 07 €3.5M.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Werder Bremen

7th in Bundesliga · 8 pts from 5

  • 9 OctDBorussia Dortmund 2031
  • 19 SepWFC Augsburg 2004
  • 12 SepD1. FC Köln 2004
  • 5 SepWRB Leipzig 1956
  • 30 AugLSC Freiburg 1928

SC Paderborn 07

15th in Bundesliga · 4 pts from 5

  • 10 OctLVfB Stuttgart 1968
  • 20 SepW1899 Hoffenheim 1919
  • 12 SepLBorussia Dortmund 1921
  • 5 SepLSC Freiburg 1949
  • 29 AugDFSV Mainz 05 1923

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Werder Bremen8 /541.40%1%10%11th
SC Paderborn 074 /532.80%0%53%18th
Werder Bremen
SC Paderborn 07

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Y. Regeer
Y. Regeer

Werder Bremen · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2150

M. Hansen
M. Hansen

SC Paderborn 07 · +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 1975

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Daniel Moustapha Thioune

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Ralf Kettemann

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Werder Bremen: balanced profile (how Daniel Moustapha Thioune plays) · SC Paderborn 07: balanced profile (how Ralf Kettemann plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.