Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Weserstadion, Bremen
Werder Bremen host Hamburger SV on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Werder Bremen 36%, draw 29%, Hamburger SV 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Werder Bremen €6.9M, Hamburger SV €6.9M.
- Home advantage makes Werder Bremen the favourite here: it adds 4 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Bundesliga): Werder Bremen rank #16 of 18, Hamburger SV #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Werder Bremen goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- 2–27%
- 1–07%
- 0–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–1expected 0.6 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Werder Bremen 2008 · Hamburger SV 2058
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Werder Bremen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2157
Hamburger SV · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 2114
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Werder Bremen
6th in Bundesliga · 15 pts from 9
- 7 NovLVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2088
- 31 OctW1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2058
- 27 OctLBorussia Dortmund Germany DFB Pokal1953
- 24 OctWFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga2034
- 17 OctDSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2034
Hamburger SV
11th in Bundesliga · 12 pts from 9
- 6 NovWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2038
- 1 NovLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2022
- 27 OctLEintracht Frankfurt Germany DFB Pokal2039
- 24 OctLSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2044
- 17 OctWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2009
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 15 /9 | 45.3 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 8th |
| Hamburger SV | 12 /9 | 44.9 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Werder Bremen: balanced profile (how D. Thioune plays) · Hamburger SV: balanced profile (how Merlin Polzin plays)