A-League · Regular Season - 5
Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Sky Stadium, Wellington
Wellington Phoenix host Macarthur on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (A-League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Wellington Phoenix 43%, draw 28%, Macarthur 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Wellington Phoenix €438K, Macarthur €342K.
- A-League: B. Duke is the highest-rated midfielder (1805).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Wellington Phoenix goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
- 2–27%
- 1–27%
- 2–07%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
Team Elo: Wellington Phoenix 1619 · Macarthur 1552
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 4 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Wellington Phoenix · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1704
Macarthur · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1610
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Wellington Phoenix
1st in A-League · 10 pts from 4
- 7 NovDAuckland A-League1673
- 31 OctWNewcastle Jets A-League1641
- 25 OctWCentral Coast Mariners A-League1616
- 18 OctWMelbourne Victory A-League1565
- 24 AprLMacarthur A-League1552
Macarthur
7th in A-League · 5 pts from 4
- 8 NovLBrisbane Roar A-League1530
- 31 OctLWestern Sydney Wanderers A-League1552
- 24 OctDNewcastle Jets A-League1572
- 17 OctWPerth Glory A-League1543
- 24 AprWWellington Phoenix A-League1525
Season outlook
From the A-League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 10 /4 | 42.2 | 27% | 71% | 2% | 1st |
| Macarthur | 5 /4 | 33.1 | 2% | 17% | 28% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Wellington Phoenix: low-volume (how Giancarlo Italiano plays) · Macarthur: balanced profile (how Mile Sterjovski plays)