Championship · Regular Season - 9
Watford 0–4 Burnley
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Vicarage Road, Watford
WatfordTeam 1915BurnleyTeam 1963Match story
Watford · draw · BurnleyBefore kick-off: 38% · 29% · 33%
Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Jacob Bruun Larsen 13'
- Zeki Amdouni 19'
- Reo Hatate 25'
- Marcus Edwards 87'
We gave Watford 38% to win: Burnley won.
- 13'Jacob Bruun Larsen 1976 +58* assist Reo Hatate 2095 +48*Burnley:Jacob Bruun Larsen 1976 +58* assist Reo Hatate 2095 +48*
- 19'Zeki Amdouni 2163 +29Burnley:Zeki Amdouni 2163 +29
- 25'Reo Hatate 2095 +48* assist Lucas Pires Silva 2108 +47*Burnley:Reo Hatate 2095 +48* assist Lucas Pires Silva 2108 +47*
- Othmane Maamma 1986 −13* for Iker Bravo 1916 −8*35'Watford:Othmane Maamma 1986 −13* for Iker Bravo 1916 −8*
- Jordan Zemura 1984 −12* for Soumaula Coulibaly 1922 −8*45'Watford:Jordan Zemura 1984 −12* for Soumaula Coulibaly 1922 −8*
- Martin Payero 1915 −9* for Luca Kjerrumgaard 1997 −12*45'Watford:Martin Payero 1915 −9* for Luca Kjerrumgaard 1997 −12*
- Myron Boadu 1844 −8* for Amin Nabizada 1686 −8*60'Watford:Myron Boadu 1844 −8* for Amin Nabizada 1686 −8*
- 62'Marcus Edwards 2051 +18 for Zeki Amdouni 2163 +29Burnley:Marcus Edwards 2051 +18 for Zeki Amdouni 2163 +29
- 63'Jamie Vardy 1640 −6* for Largie Ramazani 2049 +8*Burnley:Jamie Vardy 1640 −6* for Largie Ramazani 2049 +8*
- Rocco Vata 1853 0 for Mamadou Doumbia 1780 −8*69'Watford:Rocco Vata 1853 0 for Mamadou Doumbia 1780 −8*
- 74'Dastan Satpaev 1663 +1* for Jacob Bruun Larsen 1976 +58*Burnley:Dastan Satpaev 1663 +1* for Jacob Bruun Larsen 1976 +58*
- 84'Armando Broja 1920 −6* for Max Alleyne 1976 +18*Burnley:Armando Broja 1920 −6* for Max Alleyne 1976 +18*
- 87'Marcus Edwards 2051 +18 assist Lucas Pires Silva 2108 +47*Burnley:Marcus Edwards 2051 +18 assist Lucas Pires Silva 2108 +47*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 38% · 29% · 33%(Watford · draw · Burnley)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–4 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Watford €3.3M, Burnley €6.2M.
- Burnley were without 1 expected starter: A. Ramsey (1720).
- Home advantage made Watford the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Watford's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Watford
20th in Championship · 8 pts from 8
- 18 SepLBristol City England Championship1927
- 12 SepLStoke City England Championship1976
- 8 SepWPreston England Championship1900
- 5 SepLWest Brom England Championship1972
- 25 AugLPeterborough England League Cup1703
Burnley
24th in Championship · 4 pts from 8
- 19 SepDDerby England Championship2027
- 12 SepLSwansea England Championship1963
- 8 SepDWrexham England Championship1962
- 5 SepLBristol City England Championship1906
- 29 AugLNorwich England Championship1943
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 8 /8 | 58.8 | <1% | 3% | 9% | 16th |
| Burnley | 4 /8 | 59.4 | <1% | 3% | 8% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Watford · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 2120
Burnley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 2135
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Watford: dribble-heavy (how Alessio Dionisi plays) · Burnley: balanced profile (how Nicky Hayen plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.