Premier Division · Regular Season - 35
Waterford vs Drogheda United
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Regional Sports Centre, Waterford
Waterford host Drogheda United on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Premier Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Waterford 42%, draw 29%, Drogheda United 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Waterford €183K, Drogheda United €195K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier Division): Waterford rank #8 of 11, Drogheda United #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Waterford goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Waterford 1468 · Drogheda United 1462
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Waterford · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1556
Drogheda United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1515
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Waterford
9th in Premier Division · 34 pts from 33
- 16 OctLBohemians Irish Premier Division1506
- 18 SepLShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1502
- 14 SepDDerry City Irish Premier Division1502
- 11 SepDDundalk Irish Premier Division1513
- 28 AugWSt Patrick's Athl. Irish Premier Division1452
Drogheda United
8th in Premier Division · 37 pts from 34
- 16 OctWDerry City Irish Premier Division1455
- 8 OctLShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1458
- 18 SepLBohemians Irish Premier Division1470
- 14 SepWShelbourne Irish Premier Division1443
- 11 SepWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1425
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford | 34 /33 | 38.2 | 0% | 0% | 95% | 9th |
| Drogheda United | 37 /34 | 39.8 | 0% | 0% | 90% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Waterford: balanced profile (how Graham Coughlan plays) · Drogheda United: direct (how Kevin Doherty plays)