Primera División · Clausura - 12
Wanderers vs Progreso
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Wanderers host Progreso on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Wanderers 40%, draw 29%, Progreso 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Wanderers €277K, Progreso €314K.
- Home advantage makes Wanderers the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Wanderers goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Wanderers 1484 · Progreso 1499
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Progreso · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1573
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Wanderers
7th in Primera División - Apertura · 50 pts from 33
- 17 OctLRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1485
- 10 OctLBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1499
- 4 OctWCerro Uruguay Primera Division1491
- 20 SepDDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1501
- 12 SepDClub Nacional Uruguay Primera Division1502
Progreso
16th in Primera División - Apertura · 32 pts from 33
- 17 OctWJuventud Uruguay Primera Division1462
- 10 OctDPenarol Uruguay Primera Division1474
- 3 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1487
- 26 SepWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1444
- 19 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1382
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderers | 81 /70 | 82.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11th |
| Progreso | 71 /70 | 72.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile