3. Liga · Regular Season - 9
Waldhof Mannheim 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Carl-Benz-Stadion, Mannheim
Waldhof MannheimTeam 1568
FC Ingolstadt 04Team 1599Match story
Waldhof Mannheim · draw · FC Ingolstadt 04Before kick-off: 42% · 27% · 31%
Last reading, 90+3': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Lars Lokotsch 59'
- Max Plath 64'
- Obed Chidindu Ugondu 88'
We gave Waldhof Mannheim 42% to win: FC Ingolstadt 04 won.
- Maximilian Thalhammer 1597 −214'
Waldhof Mannheim:Maximilian Thalhammer 1597 −2 - Rui Tomás Faustino Pinto da Mota34'
Waldhof Mannheim:Rui Tomás Faustino Pinto da Mota - Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa for Leroy-Jacques Mickels 1267 −11*45'
Waldhof Mannheim:Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa for Leroy-Jacques Mickels 1267 −11* - 57'Lukas Fröde 1566 +14*
FC Ingolstadt 04:Lukas Fröde 1566 +14* - 59'Lars Lokotsch 1717 +61 assist Keanan Bennetts 1749 +33
FC Ingolstadt 04:Lars Lokotsch 1717 +61 assist Keanan Bennetts 1749 +33 - 63'Obed Chidindu Ugondu 1437 +31* for Dennis Kaygin 1595 +22
FC Ingolstadt 04:Obed Chidindu Ugondu 1437 +31* for Dennis Kaygin 1595 +22 - 63'Josef Ganda – for Keanan Bennetts 1749 +33
FC Ingolstadt 04:Josef Ganda – for Keanan Bennetts 1749 +33 - 64'Max Plath 1677 +53*
FC Ingolstadt 04:Max Plath 1677 +53* - 67'Frederik Carlsen 1655 +7 for benjamin kanuric 1656 +11*
FC Ingolstadt 04:Frederik Carlsen 1655 +7 for benjamin kanuric 1656 +11* - 67'Vinko Sapina 1643 +3 for Lukas Fröde 1566 +14*
FC Ingolstadt 04:Vinko Sapina 1643 +3 for Lukas Fröde 1566 +14* - Gonçalo Gregório 1617 −3 for Julian Ulbricht 1421 −8*70'
Waldhof Mannheim:Gonçalo Gregório 1617 −3 for Julian Ulbricht 1421 −8* - Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee 1692 −12* for Lovis Frederik Bierschenk 1565 070'
Waldhof Mannheim:Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee 1692 −12* for Lovis Frederik Bierschenk 1565 0 - Jid Okeke 1439 −8* for Lukas Klünter 1658 −570'
Waldhof Mannheim:Jid Okeke 1439 −8* for Lukas Klünter 1658 −5 - 77'Yannick Deichmann 1540 +10 for Max Plath 1677 +53*
FC Ingolstadt 04:Yannick Deichmann 1540 +10 for Max Plath 1677 +53* - 83'Josef Ganda –
FC Ingolstadt 04:Josef Ganda – - 88'Obed Chidindu Ugondu 1437 +31* assist Linus Rosenlocher 1645 +88
FC Ingolstadt 04:Obed Chidindu Ugondu 1437 +31* assist Linus Rosenlocher 1645 +88 - 90+1'Vinko Sapina 1643 +3
FC Ingolstadt 04:Vinko Sapina 1643 +3
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 42% · 27% · 31%(Waldhof Mannheim · draw · FC Ingolstadt 04)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–3 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Waldhof Mannheim €341K, FC Ingolstadt 04 €442K.
- Home advantage made Waldhof Mannheim the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (3. Liga): Waldhof Mannheim ranked #4 of 20, FC Ingolstadt 04 #17.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Waldhof Mannheim
6th in 3. Liga · 13 pts from 8
- 10 OctWSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3 Liga1563
- 20 SepWPreußen Münster Germany 3 Liga1601
- 16 SepLRot-Weiß Essen Germany 3 Liga1563
- 13 SepWSV Wehen Germany 3 Liga1492
- 5 SepLVerl Germany 3 Liga1550
FC Ingolstadt 04
17th in 3. Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 11 OctLSV Wehen Germany 3 Liga1644
- 19 SepLFC Viktoria Köln Germany 3 Liga1622
- 16 SepLHoffenheim II Germany 3 Liga1649
- 12 SepWFC Saarbrücken Germany 3 Liga1616
- 4 SepLAlemannia Aachen Germany 3 Liga1605
Season outlook
From the 3. Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldhof Mannheim | 13 /8 | 57.1 | 2% | 22% | <1% | 7th |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 /8 | 53.2 | 1% | 8% | 2% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Waldhof Mannheim · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1791

FC Ingolstadt 04 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1766
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Waldhof Mannheim: balanced profile (how Rui Tomás Faustino Pinto da Mota plays) · FC Ingolstadt 04: balanced profile (how Achim Beierlorzer plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.