Veikkausliiga · Championship Group - 27
VPS 1–0 Gnistan
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Lemonsoft Stadion, Jyväskylä
VPSTeam 1349GnistanTeam 1353- Xavier Odhiambo 36'
We gave VPS 43% to win: they did.
- Xavier Odhiambo 1283 +52* assist Casper Holmelund 1234 +6736'VPS:Xavier Odhiambo 1283 +52* assist Casper Holmelund 1234 +67
- 45'Joakim Latonen 1411 −1 for Artur Atarah 1211 0Gnistan:Joakim Latonen 1411 −1 for Artur Atarah 1211 0
- 61'Sergey Eremenko 1342 −1 for Danny Pérez 1350 0Gnistan:Sergey Eremenko 1342 −1 for Danny Pérez 1350 0
- 61'Saku Ylätupa 1514 −1 for Adam Jouhi 1438 0Gnistan:Saku Ylätupa 1514 −1 for Adam Jouhi 1438 0
- Henri Salomaa 1298 +8 for Xavier Odhiambo 1283 +52*64'VPS:Henri Salomaa 1298 +8 for Xavier Odhiambo 1283 +52*
- Jonathan Muzinga 1319 0* for Casper Holmelund 1234 +6764'VPS:Jonathan Muzinga 1319 0* for Casper Holmelund 1234 +67
- Yassin Daoussi 1362 +11 for Jayden Turfkruier 1596 +1175'VPS:Yassin Daoussi 1362 +11 for Jayden Turfkruier 1596 +11
- Simon Lindholm 1365 +11 for Joonas Vahtera 1144 +28*75'VPS:Simon Lindholm 1365 +11 for Joonas Vahtera 1144 +28*
- 76'Otto Hannula 1398 −8* for Edmund Arko-Mensah 1485 −1Gnistan:Otto Hannula 1398 −8* for Edmund Arko-Mensah 1485 −1
- 85'Noah Rossi 1190 −8* for Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga Obileye 1474 −4Gnistan:Noah Rossi 1190 −8* for Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga Obileye 1474 −4
- Razak Simpson 1710 −1 for Antti-Ville Raisanen 1336 +7587'VPS:Razak Simpson 1710 −1 for Antti-Ville Raisanen 1336 +75
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 43% · 28% · 29%(VPS · draw · Gnistan)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: VPS €167K, Gnistan €148K.
- Gnistan were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
VPS
6th in Veikkausliiga · 33 pts from 22
- 8 OctLHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1427
- 19 SepLKuPS Finland Veikkausliiga1476
- 14 SepLInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1499
- 8 SepWAC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga1418
- 22 AugWIlves Finland Veikkausliiga1398
Gnistan
4th in Veikkausliiga · 36 pts from 22
- 7 OctDInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1434
- 18 SepDHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1367
- 12 SepWAC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga1400
- 8 SepDKuPS Finland Veikkausliiga1408
- 31 AugDTurku PS Finland Veikkausliiga1454
Season outlook
From the Veikkausliiga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS | 36 /26 | 43.8 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 5th |
| Gnistan | 42 /26 | 48.9 | <1% | 80% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
VPS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1465
Gnistan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1469
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
VPS: balanced profile (how Jussi Johan Nuorela plays) · Gnistan: direct (how Jussi Leppälahti plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.