Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Vitoria vs Fluminense
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Barradao, Salvador
Vitoria host Fluminense on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vitoria 38%, draw 29%, Fluminense 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vitoria €2.0M, Fluminense €4.1M.
- Home advantage makes Vitoria the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in possession (Série A): Vitoria rank #20 of 20, Fluminense #4.
- All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vitoria goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Vitoria 1855 · Fluminense 1977
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vitoria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1983
Fluminense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2142
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vitoria
13th in Série A · 37 pts from 31
- 19 OctDCorinthians Brazil Serie A1887
- 11 OctLSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1885
- 7 OctWChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1893
- 20 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1905
- 13 SepDMirassol Brazil Serie A1892
Fluminense
5th in Série A · 51 pts from 31
- 22 OctWPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1929
- 18 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1944
- 15 OctLPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1953
- 11 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1982
- 9 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1954
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 37 /31 | 46.1 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 13th |
| Fluminense | 51 /31 | 61.9 | 0% | 54% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vitoria: direct (how Ventura Jair plays) · Fluminense: possession-based (how Marcão plays)