Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Vitoria 4–0 Chapecoense-sc
Wed 7 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador
VitoriaTeam 1860Chapecoense-scTeam 1689We gave Vitoria 62% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 62% · 22% · 16%(Vitoria · draw · Chapecoense-sc)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 4–0 had 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vitoria €1.6M, Chapecoense-sc €555K.
- Chapecoense-sc were without 1 expected starter: Heitor (1665).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vitoria
13th in Série A · 33 pts from 28
- 20 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1906
- 13 SepDMirassol Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 SepWGremio Brazil Serie A1865
- 3 SepLVasco Da Gama Brazil Copa do Brasil1883
- 29 AugLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1812
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 18 pts from 27
- 19 SepDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1703
- 6 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1663
- 30 AugLGremio Brazil Serie A1633
- 23 AugWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1602
- 16 AugDBahia Brazil Serie A1630
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 33 /28 | 46.4 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 14th |
| Chapecoense-sc | 18 /27 | 26.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vitoria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1972
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1752
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vitoria: direct (how Ventura Jair plays) · Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Rafael dos Santos Lacerda plays)