Serie A · Regular Season - 32
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Barradao, Salvador
Vitoria host Atletico Paranaense on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vitoria 46%, draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vitoria €2.0M, Atletico Paranaense €1.9M.
- Home advantage makes Vitoria the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in attacking (Série A): Vitoria rank #20 of 20, Atletico Paranaense #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vitoria goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Vitoria 1853 · Atletico Paranaense 1877
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vitoria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1975
Atletico Paranaense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2003
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vitoria
13th in Série A · 36 pts from 30
- 11 OctLSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1885
- 7 OctWChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1893
- 20 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1905
- 13 SepDMirassol Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 SepWGremio Brazil Serie A1866
Atletico Paranaense
3rd in Série A · 53 pts from 31
- 17 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1881
- 8 OctDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1918
- 20 SepWBahia Brazil Serie A1893
- 12 SepDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1909
- 6 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1896
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 36 /30 | 46.2 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 13th |
| Atletico Paranaense | 53 /31 | 61.7 | 0% | 49% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vitoria: direct (how Ventura Jair plays) · Atletico Paranaense: balanced profile (how Odair Hellmann plays)