Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9
Vitória SC vs Maritimo
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC
Vitória SC host Maritimo on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vitória SC 47%, draw 28%, Maritimo 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vitória SC €1.5M, Maritimo €544K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vitória SC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Vitória SC 1771 · Maritimo 1702
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vitória SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1624
Maritimo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1681
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vitória SC
15th in Primeira Liga · 5 pts from 8
- 11 OctLBenfica Primeira Liga1762
- 20 SepDMoreirense Primeira Liga1777
- 12 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1773
- 6 SepDCasa Pia Primeira Liga1761
- 31 AugLSC Braga Primeira Liga1773
Maritimo
11th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 10 OctLFC Porto Primeira Liga1707
- 19 SepDGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1707
- 14 SepLMoreirense Primeira Liga1675
- 5 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1686
- 29 AugLArouca Primeira Liga1692
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC | 5 /8 | 38.4 | 0% | 1% | 15% | 14th |
| Maritimo | 8 /8 | 37.3 | 0% | <1% | 21% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vitória SC: balanced profile (how Tiago Miguel Carvalho Margarido plays) · Maritimo: balanced profile (how Mitchell van der Gaag plays)