Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
Vitória SC vs FC Porto
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Vitória SC host FC Porto on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vitória SC 12%, draw 19%, FC Porto 70%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vitória SC €1.9M, FC Porto €19.8M.
- Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2588).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vitória SC goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–210%
- 1–19%
- 0–39%
- 0–18%
- 1–38%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Vitória SC 1795 · FC Porto 2295
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vitória SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1683
FC Porto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2451
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vitória SC
11th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 9
- 23 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga1781
- 11 OctLBenfica Primeira Liga1762
- 20 SepDMoreirense Primeira Liga1777
- 12 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1773
- 6 SepDCasa Pia Primeira Liga1761
FC Porto
1st in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 20 OctLPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League2361
- 14 OctLReal Betis UEFA Champions League2354
- 10 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga2345
- 20 SepWBenfica Primeira Liga2331
- 12 SepWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2304
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC | 8 /9 | 41.1 | 0% | 1% | 6% | 10th |
| FC Porto | 24 /8 | 85.5 | 78% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vitória SC: balanced profile (how Tiago Margarido plays) · FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays)