Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 14
Vitesse vs De Graafschap
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 11:15 UTC · GelreDome, Arnhem
Vitesse host De Graafschap on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vitesse 38%, draw 29%, De Graafschap 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vitesse €364K, De Graafschap €489K.
- Home advantage makes Vitesse the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Eerste Divisie): Vitesse rank #17 of 20, De Graafschap #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vitesse goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Vitesse 1611 · De Graafschap 1648
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vitesse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1718
De Graafschap · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1747
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vitesse
9th in Eerste Divisie · 17 pts from 12
- 23 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1631
- 16 OctWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1584
- 9 OctLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1589
- 3 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1638
- 26 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1637
De Graafschap
16th in Eerste Divisie · 12 pts from 12
- 23 OctDWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1673
- 19 OctLJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1640
- 9 OctWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1656
- 3 OctDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1665
- 27 SepWDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1587
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 17 /12 | 52.4 | <1% | 6% | 3% | 10th |
| De Graafschap | 12 /12 | 49.8 | <1% | 3% | 6% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vitesse: balanced profile (how Rüdiger Rehm plays) · De Graafschap: balanced profile (how Thomas Duivenvoorden plays)