Serie B · Regular Season - 37
Vila Nova vs Criciuma
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UTC
Vila Nova host Criciuma on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vila Nova 47%, draw 28%, Criciuma 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vila Nova €499K, Criciuma €392K.
- All 11 of Criciuma's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vila Nova goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Vila Nova 1712 · Criciuma 1704
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vila Nova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1689
Criciuma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1768
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vila Nova
1st in Serie B · 62 pts from 34
- 18 OctDNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1721
- 11 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1697
- 7 OctDCuiaba Brazil Serie B1721
- 3 OctWBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1710
- 25 SepWLondrina Brazil Serie B1712
Criciuma
5th in Serie B · 59 pts from 34
- 18 OctWSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1686
- 12 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1679
- 8 OctLCeara Brazil Serie B1690
- 2 OctWLondrina Brazil Serie B1668
- 27 SepWAvai Brazil Serie B1646
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 62 /34 | 67.3 | 24% | 86% | 0% | 1st |
| Criciuma | 59 /34 | 64.9 | 4% | 49% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vila Nova: balanced profile (how Guto Ferreira plays) · Criciuma: balanced profile