2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 12
VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg host Holstein Kiel on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: VfL Wolfsburg 61%, draw 23%, Holstein Kiel 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: VfL Wolfsburg €3.7M, Holstein Kiel €1.2M.
- 2. Bundesliga: T. Wellenreuther is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2149).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. VfL Wolfsburg goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: VfL Wolfsburg 1956 · Holstein Kiel 1742
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
VfL Wolfsburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1995
Holstein Kiel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.6 (Average) · Elo 1793
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
VfL Wolfsburg
5th in 2. Bundesliga · 19 pts from 11
- 7 NovLHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1988
- 31 OctWVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1967
- 28 OctLSC Freiburg Germany DFB Pokal1951
- 23 OctDVfL Bochum Germany 2 Bundesliga1971
- 17 OctW1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1948
Holstein Kiel
18th in 2. Bundesliga · 8 pts from 11
- 7 NovLArminia Bielefeld Germany 2 Bundesliga1749
- 1 NovLSpVgg Greuther Fürth Germany 2 Bundesliga1744
- 28 OctD1899 Hoffenheim Germany DFB Pokal1737
- 25 OctWDynamo Dresden Germany 2 Bundesliga1727
- 16 OctDHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1722
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | 19 /11 | 59.7 | 11% | 78% | 0% | 2nd |
| Holstein Kiel | 8 /11 | 35.8 | 0% | <1% | 45% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
VfL Wolfsburg: balanced profile (how Tobias Strobl plays) · Holstein Kiel: balanced profile (how T. Walter plays)