Serie A · Regular Season - 33
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · São Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Vasco DA Gama host Flamengo on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vasco DA Gama 27%, draw 28%, Flamengo 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vasco DA Gama €4.5M, Flamengo €11.4M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Série A matchday 33: 273 points.
- Série A: A. Rossi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2368).
- Style contrast in attacking (Série A): Vasco DA Gama rank #19 of 20, Flamengo #2.
- Vasco DA Gama's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vasco DA Gama goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Vasco DA Gama 1990 · Flamengo 2263
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vasco DA Gama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1988
Flamengo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.1 (Good) · Elo 2338
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vasco DA Gama
15th in Série A · 35 pts from 30
- 18 OctLSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2010
- 14 OctWBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana2010
- 10 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1990
- 7 OctWBotafogo Brazil Serie A1992
- 19 SepWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1995
Flamengo
1st in Série A · 67 pts from 31
- 18 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2262
- 16 OctDEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores2201
- 11 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A2213
- 8 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A2220
- 20 SepWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2236
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 35 /30 | 45.6 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 13th |
| Flamengo | 67 /31 | 81.9 | 70% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vasco DA Gama: balanced profile (how Pedro Emanuel dos Santos Martins Silva plays) · Flamengo: possession-based (how José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim plays)