Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
Vancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Willoughby Community Park, Langley
Vancouver FCTeam 1298
HFX Wanderers FCTeam 1504Match story
Vancouver FC · draw · HFX Wanderers FCBefore kick-off: 27% · 27% · 47%
Last reading, 90+2': 93% · 7% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- elage bah 24'
- Matteo.Campagna 76'
- Lucas Olguin 44'
We gave HFX Wanderers FC 47% to win: Vancouver FC won.
- elage bah 1314 +4624'
Vancouver FC:elage bah 1314 +46 - 44'Lucas Olguin 1411 0
HFX Wanderers FC:Lucas Olguin 1411 0 - Aboubacar Traore 1210 +43 for elage bah 1314 +4645'
Vancouver FC:Aboubacar Traore 1210 +43 for elage bah 1314 +46 - 45'A. Reid 1442 0 for Liam MacKenzie 1510 0
HFX Wanderers FC:A. Reid 1442 0 for Liam MacKenzie 1510 0 - Isak Ssewankambo 1413 +1353'
Vancouver FC:Isak Ssewankambo 1413 +13 - 64'Francesco Troisi 1271 0 for Ilan Ahmed Hassan 1354 −8*
HFX Wanderers FC:Francesco Troisi 1271 0 for Ilan Ahmed Hassan 1354 −8* - Lys Mousset 1398 +3 for Terran Campbell 1355 +1966'
Vancouver FC:Lys Mousset 1398 +3 for Terran Campbell 1355 +19 - 69'A. Reid 1442 0
HFX Wanderers FC:A. Reid 1442 0 - Marcello Polisi 1340 −4* for Isak Ssewankambo 1413 +1371'
Vancouver FC:Marcello Polisi 1340 −4* for Isak Ssewankambo 1413 +13 - Benjamin Lee 1151 +10 for Emrick Fotsing 1191 +4072'
Vancouver FC:Benjamin Lee 1151 +10 for Emrick Fotsing 1191 +40 - Matteo.Campagna 1430 +60 assist Aboubacar Traore 1210 +4376'
Vancouver FC:Matteo.Campagna 1430 +60 assist Aboubacar Traore 1210 +43 - 81'Tavio Ciccarelli 1185 0 for Miguel Arilla Guinot 1416 0
HFX Wanderers FC:Tavio Ciccarelli 1185 0 for Miguel Arilla Guinot 1416 0 - 81'Andre Rampersad 1394 −11* for S. Zitman 1537 0
HFX Wanderers FC:Andre Rampersad 1394 −11* for S. Zitman 1537 0 - Nicolás Mezquida 1241 −12* for Luis Toomey 1337 +2884'
Vancouver FC:Nicolás Mezquida 1241 −12* for Luis Toomey 1337 +28 - 88'Jabu Deng for Lucas Olguin 1411 0
HFX Wanderers FC:Jabu Deng for Lucas Olguin 1411 0
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 27% · 27% · 47%(Vancouver FC · draw · HFX Wanderers FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Vancouver FC €124K, HFX Wanderers FC €177K.
- Canadian Premier League: L. Callegari was the highest-rated midfielder (1695).
- Style contrast in chance creation (Canadian Premier League): Vancouver FC ranked #6 of 7, HFX Wanderers FC #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vancouver FC
4th in Canadian Premier League · 34 pts from 26
- 10 OctDSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1312
- 26 SepDForge Canada Premier League1289
- 24 SepDYork United Canada Premier League1308
- 20 SepDPacific FC Canada Premier League1297
- 13 SepLYork United Canada Premier League1325
HFX Wanderers FC
6th in Canadian Premier League · 28 pts from 26
- 12 OctDCavalry FC Canada Premier League1567
- 3 OctDForge Canada Premier League1541
- 26 SepLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1565
- 20 SepWYork United Canada Premier League1502
- 12 SepWSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1478
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 34 /26 | 35.8 | 0% | 66% | 4% | 4th |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 28 /26 | 31.2 | 0% | 5% | 83% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Vancouver FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1445

HFX Wanderers FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1655
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vancouver FC: direct (how Martin Nash plays) · HFX Wanderers FC: balanced profile (how Vanni Sartini plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.