Segunda División · Regular Season - 14
Valladolid vs Castellón
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Valladolid host Castellón on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Valladolid 33%, draw 29%, Castellón 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Valladolid €950K, Castellón €1.1M.
- Castellón's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Valladolid goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Valladolid 1731 · Castellón 1879
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Valladolid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1793
Castellón · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1973
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Valladolid
15th in Segunda División · 12 pts from 11
- 23 OctLGranada CF Spain Segunda Division1727
- 18 OctLEldense Spain Segunda Division1719
- 12 OctWAlbacete Spain Segunda Division1706
- 4 OctDLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1716
- 27 SepWCordoba Spain Segunda Division1646
Castellón
1st in Segunda División · 26 pts from 11
- 29 OctWConquense Spain Copa del Rey1695
- 25 OctWSporting Gijon Spain Segunda Division1889
- 17 OctWLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1853
- 11 OctLFC Andorra Spain Segunda Division1876
- 4 OctDAD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda Division1782
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 12 /11 | 52.2 | 0% | <1% | 7% | 13th |
| Castellón | 26 /11 | 75.9 | 26% | 72% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Valladolid: balanced profile (how Fran Escriba plays) · Castellón: dribble-heavy (how Pablo Hernández plays)