Eliteserien · Regular Season - 24
Valerenga 3–1 Brann
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Intility Arena, Oslo
ValerengaTeam 1522BrannTeam 1717- Sebastian Jarl 36'
- Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 62', 81'
- Kristian Eriksen 44'
We gave Brann 51% to win: Valerenga won.
- Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88 (penalty missed)14'Valerenga:Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88 (penalty missed)
- Sebastian Jarl 1621 +6236'Valerenga:Sebastian Jarl 1621 +62
- 44'Kristian Eriksen 1680 −18 assist Joachim Soltvedt 1690 −22Brann:Kristian Eriksen 1680 −18 assist Joachim Soltvedt 1690 −22
- 45'Noah Jean Holm 1742 −6 for Fredrik Knudsen 1739 −8Brann:Noah Jean Holm 1742 −6 for Fredrik Knudsen 1739 −8
- Fidel Brice Ambina 1609 +8 for Ghayas Zahid 1521 +1453'Valerenga:Fidel Brice Ambina 1609 +8 for Ghayas Zahid 1521 +14
- Håkon Sjåtil 1585 +2257'Valerenga:Håkon Sjåtil 1585 +22
- Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88 assist Mathias Grundetjern 1619 +6462'Valerenga:Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88 assist Mathias Grundetjern 1619 +64
- 71'Jonas Tviberg Torsvik 1352 0 for Thore Pedersen 1732 −10Brann:Jonas Tviberg Torsvik 1352 0 for Thore Pedersen 1732 −10
- Ivan Nasberg 1599 +1 for Carl Lange 1595 +1776'Valerenga:Ivan Nasberg 1599 +1 for Carl Lange 1595 +17
- Håvard Nielsen 1571 −3* for Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter –76'Valerenga:Håvard Nielsen 1571 −3* for Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter –
- 78'Vetle Winger Dragsnes 1676 −5 for Neraysho Kasanwirjo 1752 −11Brann:Vetle Winger Dragsnes 1676 −5 for Neraysho Kasanwirjo 1752 −11
- 78'Bård Finne 1575 −3 for Saevar Atli Magnusson 1733 −9Brann:Bård Finne 1575 −3 for Saevar Atli Magnusson 1733 −9
- Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88 assist Håvard Nielsen 1571 −3*81'Valerenga:Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88 assist Håvard Nielsen 1571 −3*
- Kevin Ngoyi Tshiembe 1570 −8* for Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +8886'Valerenga:Kevin Ngoyi Tshiembe 1570 −8* for Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 1548 +88
- Gabriel Rajkovic 1387 +2 for Håkon Sjåtil 1585 +2286'Valerenga:Gabriel Rajkovic 1387 +2 for Håkon Sjåtil 1585 +22
- 90+6'Jacob Lungi Sorensen 1739 −13Brann:Jacob Lungi Sorensen 1739 −13
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 24% · 25% · 51%(Valerenga · draw · Brann)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–1 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Valerenga €486K, Brann €894K.
- Valerenga were without 1 expected starter: M. Westergaard (1582).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Valerenga
14th in Eliteserien · 23 pts from 22
- 12 OctLKFUM Oslo Eliteserien1545
- 20 SepDFredrikstad Eliteserien1552
- 12 SepLLillestrom Eliteserien1565
- 6 SepDSarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien1571
- 30 AugLMolde Eliteserien1585
Brann
7th in Eliteserien · 29 pts from 22
- 15 OctWLincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Conference League1736
- 9 OctLViking Eliteserien1719
- 20 SepWBodo/Glimt Eliteserien1723
- 13 SepLStart Eliteserien1724
- 5 SepLLillestrom Eliteserien1746
Season outlook
From the Eliteserien simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 23 /22 | 31.0 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 14th |
| Brann | 29 /22 | 42.9 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Valerenga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1460
Brann · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 1752
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Valerenga: balanced profile (how Johannes Moesgaard plays) · Brann: possession-based (how Eirik Horneland plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.