La Liga · Regular Season - 10
Valencia vs Villarreal
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia host Villarreal on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Valencia 31%, draw 29%, Villarreal 40%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Valencia €5.5M, Villarreal €11.8M.
- Style contrast in chance creation (La Liga): Valencia rank #20 of 20, Villarreal #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Valencia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Valencia 2004 · Villarreal 2181
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Valencia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2104
Villarreal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Good) · Elo 2305
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Valencia
19th in La Liga · 6 pts from 9
- 17 OctDAthletic Club La Liga2041
- 11 OctDRacing Santander La Liga2054
- 20 SepLReal Sociedad La Liga2009
- 15 SepWAlaves La Liga1977
- 11 SepLSevilla La Liga1914
Villarreal
12th in La Liga · 9 pts from 9
- 17 OctDElche La Liga2148
- 13 OctWNapoli UEFA Champions League2151
- 10 OctLReal Madrid La Liga2193
- 20 SepWLevante La Liga2151
- 17 SepWMalaga La Liga2131
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 6 /9 | 41.4 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 12th |
| Villarreal | 9 /9 | 54.6 | 0% | 2% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Valencia: balanced profile (how Javier Aguirre Onaindía plays) · Villarreal: balanced profile (how Iñigo Pérez Soto plays)