La Liga · Regular Season - 12
Valencia vs Real Madrid
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia host Real Madrid on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Valencia 13%, draw 20%, Real Madrid 67%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Valencia €5.6M, Real Madrid €65.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of La Liga matchday 12: 502 points.
- Style contrast in chance creation (La Liga): Valencia rank #20 of 20, Real Madrid #1.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Valencia goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–210%
- 1–110%
- 0–19%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Valencia 2004 · Real Madrid 2506
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Valencia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2104
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.0 (Good) · Elo 2581
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Valencia
19th in La Liga · 6 pts from 9
- 17 OctDAthletic Club La Liga2041
- 11 OctDRacing Santander La Liga2054
- 20 SepLReal Sociedad La Liga2009
- 15 SepWAlaves La Liga1977
- 11 SepLSevilla La Liga1914
Real Madrid
3rd in La Liga · 21 pts from 9
- 21 OctWRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2491
- 18 OctWSevilla La Liga2464
- 14 OctWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2471
- 10 OctWVillarreal La Liga2449
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 6 /9 | 41.1 | 0% | 0% | 17% | 15th |
| Real Madrid | 21 /9 | 86.7 | 11% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Valencia: balanced profile (how J. Aguirre plays) · Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mourinho plays)