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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 8

Utrecht 3–1 Willem II

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 10:15 UTC · Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht crestUtrechtTeam 1813
3–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Willem II crestWillem IITeam 1707

Match story

Utrecht · draw · Willem II

Before kick-off: 51% · 25% · 24%

Live chances: Utrecht 100%, draw 0%, Willem II 0% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Utrecht 51%, draw 25%, Willem II 24%3' · 0–0 · Utrecht 51%, draw 25%, Willem II 24%4' · 0–0 · Utrecht 50%, draw 25%, Willem II 24%5' · 0–0 · Utrecht 50%, draw 26%, Willem II 24%6' · 0–0 · Utrecht 50%, draw 26%, Willem II 24%7' · 0–0 · Utrecht 50%, draw 26%, Willem II 24%8' · 0–0 · Utrecht 50%, draw 26%, Willem II 24%9' · 0–0 · Utrecht 50%, draw 26%, Willem II 24%10' · 0–0 · Utrecht 49%, draw 26%, Willem II 24%11' · 0–0 · Utrecht 49%, draw 27%, Willem II 24%12' · 0–0 · Utrecht 49%, draw 27%, Willem II 24%13' · 0–0 · Utrecht 49%, draw 27%, Willem II 24%14' · 0–0 · Utrecht 49%, draw 27%, Willem II 24%15' · 0–0 · Utrecht 49%, draw 27%, Willem II 24%16' · 0–0 · Utrecht 48%, draw 27%, Willem II 24%17' · 0–0 · Utrecht 48%, draw 28%, Willem II 24%18' · 0–0 · Utrecht 48%, draw 28%, Willem II 24%19' · 0–0 · Utrecht 48%, draw 28%, Willem II 24%20' · 0–0 · Utrecht 48%, draw 28%, Willem II 24%21' · 0–0 · Utrecht 47%, draw 28%, Willem II 24%22' · 0–0 · Utrecht 47%, draw 29%, Willem II 24%23' · 0–0 · Utrecht 47%, draw 29%, Willem II 24%24' · 0–0 · Utrecht 47%, draw 29%, Willem II 24%25' · 0–0 · Utrecht 47%, draw 29%, Willem II 24%26' · 0–0 · Utrecht 46%, draw 29%, Willem II 24%27' · 0–0 · Utrecht 46%, draw 30%, Willem II 24%28' · 0–0 · Utrecht 46%, draw 30%, Willem II 24%29' · 0–0 · Utrecht 46%, draw 30%, Willem II 24%30' · 0–0 · Utrecht 46%, draw 30%, Willem II 24%31' · 0–0 · Utrecht 45%, draw 31%, Willem II 24%32' · 0–0 · Utrecht 45%, draw 31%, Willem II 24%33' · 0–0 · Utrecht 45%, draw 31%, Willem II 24%34' · 0–0 · Utrecht 45%, draw 31%, Willem II 24%35' · 0–0 · Utrecht 44%, draw 32%, Willem II 24%36' · 0–0 · Utrecht 44%, draw 32%, Willem II 24%37' · 0–0 · Utrecht 44%, draw 32%, Willem II 24%39' · 0–0 · Utrecht 43%, draw 33%, Willem II 24%41' · 0–0 · Utrecht 43%, draw 34%, Willem II 24%42' · 0–0 · Utrecht 42%, draw 34%, Willem II 24%44' · 0–0 · Utrecht 42%, draw 35%, Willem II 24%45' · 0–0 · Utrecht 42%, draw 35%, Willem II 24%45+1' · 0–0 · Utrecht 41%, draw 35%, Willem II 23%45+2' · 0–0 · Utrecht 41%, draw 36%, Willem II 23%45+3' · 0–0 · Utrecht 41%, draw 36%, Willem II 23%45+4' · 0–0 · Utrecht 40%, draw 36%, Willem II 23%HT · 0–0 · Utrecht 40%, draw 36%, Willem II 23%46' · 0–0 · Utrecht 40%, draw 36%, Willem II 23%47' · 0–0 · Utrecht 40%, draw 37%, Willem II 23%49' · 0–0 · Utrecht 39%, draw 38%, Willem II 23%50' · 0–0 · Utrecht 39%, draw 38%, Willem II 23%51' · 0–0 · Utrecht 39%, draw 39%, Willem II 23%52' · 0–0 · Utrecht 38%, draw 39%, Willem II 23%53' · 1–0 · Utrecht 77%, draw 18%, Willem II 5%55' · 1–0 · Utrecht 78%, draw 18%, Willem II 5%56' · 1–0 · Utrecht 78%, draw 18%, Willem II 5%57' · 1–0 · Utrecht 78%, draw 17%, Willem II 5%58' · 1–0 · Utrecht 78%, draw 17%, Willem II 4%59' · 1–0 · Utrecht 78%, draw 17%, Willem II 4%60' · 1–1 · Utrecht 34%, draw 45%, Willem II 21%61' · 1–1 · Utrecht 34%, draw 45%, Willem II 21%62' · 1–1 · Utrecht 33%, draw 46%, Willem II 21%63' · 1–1 · Utrecht 33%, draw 47%, Willem II 21%64' · 1–1 · Utrecht 32%, draw 47%, Willem II 20%65' · 1–1 · Utrecht 32%, draw 48%, Willem II 20%66' · 1–1 · Utrecht 31%, draw 49%, Willem II 20%67' · 1–1 · Utrecht 31%, draw 50%, Willem II 20%68' · 1–1 · Utrecht 30%, draw 51%, Willem II 19%69' · 1–1 · Utrecht 29%, draw 52%, Willem II 19%70' · 1–1 · Utrecht 29%, draw 53%, Willem II 19%71' · 1–1 · Utrecht 28%, draw 54%, Willem II 18%72' · 1–1 · Utrecht 27%, draw 55%, Willem II 18%73' · 1–1 · Utrecht 27%, draw 56%, Willem II 18%74' · 1–1 · Utrecht 26%, draw 57%, Willem II 17%75' · 1–1 · Utrecht 25%, draw 58%, Willem II 17%76' · 2–1 · Utrecht 83%, draw 15%, Willem II 2%77' · 2–1 · Utrecht 84%, draw 14%, Willem II 2%78' · 2–1 · Utrecht 84%, draw 14%, Willem II 2%79' · 2–1 · Utrecht 85%, draw 14%, Willem II 2%80' · 2–1 · Utrecht 85%, draw 13%, Willem II 1%81' · 2–1 · Utrecht 86%, draw 13%, Willem II 1%82' · 2–1 · Utrecht 86%, draw 12%, Willem II 1%83' · 2–1 · Utrecht 87%, draw 12%, Willem II 1%84' · 2–1 · Utrecht 88%, draw 11%, Willem II 1%85' · 2–1 · Utrecht 88%, draw 11%, Willem II 1%86' · 2–1 · Utrecht 89%, draw 10%, Willem II 1%87' · 2–1 · Utrecht 90%, draw 10%, Willem II 1%88' · 2–1 · Utrecht 91%, draw 9%, Willem II 1%89' · 2–1 · Utrecht 91%, draw 8%, Willem II 0%90' · 2–1 · Utrecht 92%, draw 7%, Willem II 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Utrecht 93%, draw 6%, Willem II 0%90+2' · 3–1 · Utrecht 100%, draw 0%, Willem II 0%90+3' · 3–1 · Utrecht 100%, draw 0%, Willem II 0%90+4' · 3–1 · Utrecht 100%, draw 0%, Willem II 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Utrecht 51% to win: they did.

  1. 45'Utrecht:Yoann Cathline 1962 +15*
  2. 53'Utrecht:Yoann Cathline 1962 +15* assist Dani De Wit 1951 +16*
  3. 60'Willem II:Jaden Slory 1718 −14* assist Vito van Crooy 1698 −26*
  4. 68'Utrecht:Per Kloosterboer 1737 −3* for Arthur Zagre 1827 +3*
  5. 68'Utrecht:Ángel Alarcón 1847 +1* for Niklas Vesterlund 1903 0*
  6. 72'Willem II:Eser Gürbüz 1572 −8* for Jaden Slory 1718 −14*
  7. 72'Willem II:Anass Zarrouk 1657 −8* for Tonny Vilhena 1696 −16*
  8. 75'Utrecht:Yoann Cathline 1962 +15* assist Oualid Agougil 1794 +35*
  9. 80'Utrecht:Nikolas Panagiotou 1970 +8
  10. 81'Willem II:Thomas Verheydt 1570 −14* for Vito van Crooy 1698 −26*
  11. 81'Willem II:Alessandro Ciranni 1587 −10* for Nathan Tjoe-A-On 1731 −15*
  12. 82'Utrecht:Adrian Blake 1732 −6* for Marius Broholm 1694 +12*
  13. 82'Utrecht:Davy Van Den Berg 1812 −7* for Oualid Agougil 1794 +35*
  14. 87'Willem II:Chido Obi 1671 −8* for Uriël van Aalst 1689 −13*
  15. 90+2'Utrecht:Ángel Alarcón 1847 +1* assist Adrian Blake 1732 −6*
  16. 90+3'Utrecht:S. van Duijn 1848 −7* for Yoann Cathline 1962 +15*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-4-2
GM. Delanghe1710−15*
DH. ter Avest1732−18*
DF. Stam1712−15*
DM. Dekker1770−20*
DN. Tjoe-A-On1731−15*
MJ. Slory1718−14*
MC. Twigt1768−19*
MT. Vilhena1696−16*
MV. van Crooij1698−26*
FUriel van Aalst1689−13*
FD. Haen1765−19*
CJ. Stegeman1727−24*
Before kick-off: 51% · 25% · 24%(Utrecht · draw · Willem II)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–1 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Utrecht €1.6M, Willem II €818K.
  • Utrecht were without 1 expected starter: Artem Stepanov (1907).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Eredivisie matchday 8: 124 points.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (Eredivisie): Utrecht ranked #2 of 18, Willem II #16.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Utrecht

15th in Eredivisie · 5 pts from 7

  • 20 SepLFeyenoord 1877
  • 13 SepWExcelsior 1859
  • 8 SepDGO Ahead Eagles 1885
  • 30 AugLPSV Eindhoven 1868
  • 22 AugDSparta Rotterdam 1876

Willem II

18th in Eredivisie · 2 pts from 7

  • 19 SepLFortuna Sittard 1741
  • 15 SepLAjax 1753
  • 11 SepDAZ Alkmaar 1739
  • 5 SepLExcelsior 1738
  • 30 AugDHeerenveen 1757

Season outlook

From the Eredivisie simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Utrecht5 /742.20%<1%6%9th
Willem II2 /730.80%0%58%18th
Utrecht
Willem II

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Eredivisie

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. van Overeem
J. van Overeem

Utrecht · +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1876

D. Haen
D. Haen

Willem II · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1784

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Anthony Correia

Coach DNA: direct

John Stegeman

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Utrecht: balanced profile (how Anthony Correia plays) · Willem II: balanced profile (how John Stegeman plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.