Eredivisie · Regular Season - 10
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Utrecht host PEC Zwolle on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Utrecht 55%, draw 25%, PEC Zwolle 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Utrecht €1.8M, PEC Zwolle €886K.
- PEC Zwolle's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Utrecht goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Utrecht 1884 · PEC Zwolle 1715
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Utrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1911
PEC Zwolle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1746
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Utrecht
11th in Eredivisie · 11 pts from 9
- 18 OctWTwente Eredivisie1875
- 11 OctWWillem II Eredivisie1870
- 20 SepLFeyenoord Eredivisie1877
- 13 SepWExcelsior Eredivisie1859
- 8 SepDGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1885
PEC Zwolle
15th in Eredivisie · 7 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1674
- 11 OctLCambuur Eredivisie1727
- 18 SepLGroningen Eredivisie1720
- 13 SepLFeyenoord Eredivisie1704
- 4 SepDSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1745
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 11 /9 | 47.4 | 0% | 2% | 1% | 7th |
| PEC Zwolle | 7 /9 | 33.4 | 0% | 0% | 43% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Utrecht: balanced profile (how Anthony Correia plays) · PEC Zwolle: balanced profile (how Henry van der Vegt plays)