Liga Pro · Championship Group - 7
Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Universidad Catolica host Barcelona SC on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Universidad Catolica 40%, draw 29%, Barcelona SC 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Universidad Catolica €599K, Barcelona SC €472K.
- Home advantage makes Universidad Catolica the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Barcelona SC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Universidad Catolica goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Universidad Catolica 1641 · Barcelona SC 1654
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Universidad Catolica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.2 (Good) · Elo 1602
Barcelona SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1731
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Universidad Catolica
2nd in Liga Pro · 51 pts from 30
- 8 NovDMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1563
- 1 NovLAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1462
- 23 OctDIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1724
- 18 OctDBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1715
- 11 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1715
Barcelona SC
6th in Liga Pro · 44 pts from 30
- 8 NovDLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1648
- 31 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1653
- 25 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1607
- 18 OctDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1619
- 11 OctLLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1642
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | 54 /36 | 59.0 | 0% | 66% | 0% | 4th |
| Barcelona SC | 49 /35 | 55.2 | 0% | 15% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Universidad Catolica: possession-based · creative (how D. Martínez plays) · Barcelona SC: balanced profile (how Pablo Trobbiani plays)