Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 9
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:15 UTC · Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise host Cercle Brugge on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Jupiler Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Union St. Gilloise 74%, draw 17%, Cercle Brugge 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Union St. Gilloise €4.1M, Cercle Brugge €1.2M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Pro League matchday 9: 395 points.
- Draw chance 17%, below the Pro League average of 26% this round.
- Union St. Gilloise's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Union St. Gilloise goals first.
- 2–011%
- 3–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–18%
- 1–07%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.1 pts
Team Elo: Union St. Gilloise 2072 · Cercle Brugge 1677
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Union St. Gilloise · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Elite) · Elo 1909
Cercle Brugge · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1759
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Union St. Gilloise
4th in Pro League · 20 pts from 8
- 15 OctDReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League1992
- 11 OctDOH Leuven Belgium Pro League2001
- 20 SepWAntwerp Belgium Pro League2088
- 17 SepWPlzen UEFA Europa League1978
- 12 SepWLommel United Belgium Pro League2086
Cercle Brugge
18th in Pro League · 3 pts from 8
- 10 OctLAnderlecht Belgium Pro League1723
- 19 SepLCharleroi Belgium Pro League1668
- 12 SepDOH Leuven Belgium Pro League1703
- 6 SepLGent Belgium Pro League1649
- 29 AugLLommel United Belgium Pro League1714
Season outlook
From the Jupiler Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 20 /8 | 70.6 | 17% | 97% | 0% | 2nd |
| Cercle Brugge | 3 /8 | 30.6 | 0% | 0% | 58% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Union St. Gilloise: high-pressing (how David Hubert plays) · Cercle Brugge: direct · high-pressing (how Lars Friis plays)