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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union Berlin crestUnion BerlinTeam 1904
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
SV Elversberg crestSV ElversbergTeam 1913

Match story

Union Berlin · draw · SV Elversberg

Before kick-off: 40% · 27% · 33%

Live chances: Union Berlin 95%, draw 5%, SV Elversberg 0% at 90+3'1' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, SV Elversberg 33%2' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, SV Elversberg 33%3' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, SV Elversberg 33%4' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, SV Elversberg 33%5' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, SV Elversberg 33%6' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 27%, SV Elversberg 33%7' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%8' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%9' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%10' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%11' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%12' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%13' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 28%, SV Elversberg 33%14' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 33%15' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 39%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 33%16' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 33%17' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 32%18' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 32%19' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 32%20' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 30%, SV Elversberg 32%22' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 30%, SV Elversberg 32%23' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 30%, SV Elversberg 32%24' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 38%, draw 30%, SV Elversberg 32%25' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 31%, SV Elversberg 32%26' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 31%, SV Elversberg 32%27' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 31%, SV Elversberg 32%28' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 31%, SV Elversberg 32%29' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 31%, SV Elversberg 32%30' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 32%, SV Elversberg 32%31' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 37%, draw 32%, SV Elversberg 31%32' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 36%, draw 32%, SV Elversberg 31%33' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 36%, draw 33%, SV Elversberg 31%34' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 36%, draw 33%, SV Elversberg 31%35' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 36%, draw 33%, SV Elversberg 31%36' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 36%, draw 33%, SV Elversberg 31%37' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 36%, draw 34%, SV Elversberg 31%38' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 35%, draw 34%, SV Elversberg 31%39' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 35%, draw 34%, SV Elversberg 31%40' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 35%, draw 35%, SV Elversberg 30%41' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 35%, draw 35%, SV Elversberg 30%43' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 35%, draw 35%, SV Elversberg 30%44' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 34%, draw 36%, SV Elversberg 30%45+1' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 34%, draw 37%, SV Elversberg 30%45+2' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 34%, draw 37%, SV Elversberg 29%45+3' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 33%, draw 37%, SV Elversberg 29%HT · 0–0 · Union Berlin 33%, draw 37%, SV Elversberg 29%47' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 33%, draw 38%, SV Elversberg 29%48' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 33%, draw 38%, SV Elversberg 29%49' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 33%, draw 39%, SV Elversberg 29%50' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 32%, draw 39%, SV Elversberg 28%51' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 32%, draw 40%, SV Elversberg 28%52' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 32%, draw 40%, SV Elversberg 28%53' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 31%, draw 41%, SV Elversberg 28%54' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 31%, draw 42%, SV Elversberg 27%55' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 31%, draw 42%, SV Elversberg 27%56' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 30%, draw 43%, SV Elversberg 27%57' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 30%, draw 44%, SV Elversberg 27%58' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 30%, draw 44%, SV Elversberg 26%59' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 29%, draw 45%, SV Elversberg 26%60' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 29%, draw 46%, SV Elversberg 26%61' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 28%, draw 46%, SV Elversberg 25%62' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 28%, draw 47%, SV Elversberg 25%63' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 28%, draw 48%, SV Elversberg 25%64' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 27%, draw 48%, SV Elversberg 24%65' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 27%, draw 49%, SV Elversberg 24%66' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 26%, draw 50%, SV Elversberg 24%67' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 26%, draw 51%, SV Elversberg 23%68' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 25%, draw 52%, SV Elversberg 23%69' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 25%, draw 53%, SV Elversberg 22%70' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 24%, draw 54%, SV Elversberg 22%71' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 24%, draw 54%, SV Elversberg 22%72' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 23%, draw 55%, SV Elversberg 21%73' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 23%, draw 56%, SV Elversberg 21%74' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 22%, draw 57%, SV Elversberg 20%75' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 22%, draw 59%, SV Elversberg 20%76' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 21%, draw 60%, SV Elversberg 19%77' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 20%, draw 61%, SV Elversberg 19%78' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 20%, draw 62%, SV Elversberg 18%79' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 19%, draw 64%, SV Elversberg 17%80' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 18%, draw 65%, SV Elversberg 17%81' · 0–0 · Union Berlin 18%, draw 66%, SV Elversberg 16%82' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 84%, draw 14%, SV Elversberg 2%83' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 85%, draw 13%, SV Elversberg 1%84' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 86%, draw 13%, SV Elversberg 1%85' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 87%, draw 12%, SV Elversberg 1%86' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 88%, draw 12%, SV Elversberg 1%87' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 88%, draw 11%, SV Elversberg 1%88' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 89%, draw 10%, SV Elversberg 1%89' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 90%, draw 9%, SV Elversberg 1%90' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 91%, draw 8%, SV Elversberg 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 93%, draw 7%, SV Elversberg 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 94%, draw 6%, SV Elversberg 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Union Berlin 95%, draw 5%, SV Elversberg 0%

Last reading, 90+3': 95% · 5% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Union Berlin 40% to win: they did.

  1. 7'Union Berlin:Janik Haberer 1845 +8*
  2. 21'Union Berlin:Tim Skarke 1728 +13*
  3. 58'Union Berlin:Livan Burcu 1861 +11* for Kastriot Imeri 1941 +20*
  4. 59'SV Elversberg:Maurice Krattenmacher 1693 −8* for Tom Zimmerschied 1915 −11*
  5. 70'SV Elversberg:Cole Campbell 1544 −8* for Noel Futkeu 1806 −8*
  6. 71'SV Elversberg:Nicholas Mickelson 1787 −8* for Lasse Günther 1903 −15*
  7. 71'SV Elversberg:David Mokwa 1963 −9* for Noah Darvich 1746 −8*
  8. 77'Union Berlin:Christopher Trimmel 1704 −11* for Michel Aebischer 2059 +7
  9. 78'Union Berlin:M. Gray for Woo-Yeong Jeong 1967 +27*
  10. 78'Union Berlin:Oliver Burke 1931 −7* for Tim Skarke 1728 +13*
  11. 81'Union Berlin:Livan Burcu 1861 +11*
  12. 86'SV Elversberg:Frederik Schmahl 1799 −8* for Luca Sirch 1837 −9*
  13. 90+2'SV Elversberg:Maurice Krattenmacher 1693 −8*
  14. 90+2'Union Berlin:Aljoscha Kemlein 2017 −7* for András Schäfer 2121 +11

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-1-4-1Formations4-2-3-1
GN. Kristof1987−30*
DL. Sirch1837−9*
DL. Pinckert1935−23*
DM. Rohr1938−26*
DL. Günther1903−15*
MF. Keidel1930−13*
MŁ. Poręba1997−16*
ML. Petkov1997−8
MNoah Darvich1746−8*
MT. Zimmerschied1915−11*
FN. Futkeu1806−8*
CV. Wagner1954−19*
Before kick-off: 40% · 27% · 33%(Union Berlin · draw · SV Elversberg)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 7%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Union Berlin €4.0M, SV Elversberg €2.4M.
  • Union Berlin were without 1 expected starter: J. Juranović (1906).
  • SV Elversberg were without 1 expected starter: Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (1967).
  • Style contrast in discipline (Bundesliga): Union Berlin ranked #17 of 18, SV Elversberg #2.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Union Berlin

17th in Bundesliga · 1 pts from 4

  • 18 SepLBayern München 1906
  • 11 SepLFC Schalke 04 1930
  • 5 SepLBayer Leverkusen 1924
  • 29 AugDEintracht Frankfurt 1914
  • 23 AugWEintracht Braunschweig 1906

SV Elversberg

8th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 4

  • 20 SepDFC Schalke 04 1907
  • 13 SepLBayern München 1931
  • 5 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach 1914
  • 29 AugWBayer Leverkusen 1872
  • 22 AugWMSV Duisburg 1801

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Union Berlin1 /433.30%0%51%18th
SV Elversberg7 /435.40%<1%37%16th
Union Berlin
SV Elversberg

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

K. Imeri
K. Imeri

Union Berlin · +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1922

N. Futkeu
N. Futkeu

SV Elversberg · +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1814

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Mauro Lustrinelli

Coach DNA: shot-heavy · direct

Vincent Wagner

Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Union Berlin: direct (how Mauro Lustrinelli plays) · SV Elversberg: balanced profile (how Vincent Wagner plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.