Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Union Berlin host RB Leipzig on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Union Berlin 18%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig 57%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Union Berlin €4.2M, RB Leipzig €26.1M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Bundesliga): Union Berlin rank #18 of 18, RB Leipzig #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Union Berlin goals first.
- 1–111%
- 1–29%
- 0–28%
- 2–27%
- 1–37%
- 0–16%
- Other scores52%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–2expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Union Berlin 1924 · RB Leipzig 2241
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Union Berlin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.5 (Good) · Elo 2053
RB Leipzig · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2397
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Union Berlin
16th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 9
- 8 NovLSC Freiburg Bundesliga1912
- 1 NovD1. FC Köln Bundesliga1922
- 27 OctL1. FC Köln Germany DFB Pokal1909
- 24 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga1942
- 17 OctDBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga1940
RB Leipzig
4th in Bundesliga · 18 pts from 9
- 7 NovWFC Augsburg Bundesliga2234
- 4 NovLManchester City UEFA Champions League2306
- 31 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2263
- 27 OctWRot-Weiß Essen Germany DFB Pokal2175
- 24 OctWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2100
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 7 /9 | 32.4 | 0% | 0% | 53% | 17th |
| RB Leipzig | 18 /9 | 61.3 | 1% | 71% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · direct
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Union Berlin: direct (how Mauro Lustrinelli plays) · RB Leipzig: dribble-heavy (how M. Demichelis plays)