Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union BerlinTeam 1900
Borussia DortmundTeam 2326Match story
Union Berlin · draw · Borussia DortmundBefore kick-off: 14% · 19% · 68%
Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 98% · 1%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
We gave Borussia Dortmund 68% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 1'Ethan Nwaneri 2268 0
Borussia Dortmund:Ethan Nwaneri 2268 0 - 7'Waldemar Anton 2393 −10
Borussia Dortmund:Waldemar Anton 2393 −10 - 14'Serhou Guirassy 2420 −6
Borussia Dortmund:Serhou Guirassy 2420 −6 - Janik Haberer 1852 +833'
Union Berlin:Janik Haberer 1852 +8 - Tom Rothe 1985 +1035'
Union Berlin:Tom Rothe 1985 +10 - Emmanuel Latte Lath 1844 −1* for Kastriot Imeri 1947 +545'
Union Berlin:Emmanuel Latte Lath 1844 −1* for Kastriot Imeri 1947 +5 - 62'Konstantinos Karetsas 2240 0 for Maximilian Beier 2388 −2
Borussia Dortmund:Konstantinos Karetsas 2240 0 for Maximilian Beier 2388 −2 - 62'Fábio Silva 2072 0 for Ethan Nwaneri 2268 0
Borussia Dortmund:Fábio Silva 2072 0 for Ethan Nwaneri 2268 0 - Tim Skarke 1740 +1263'
Union Berlin:Tim Skarke 1740 +12 - Mekhi Gray 1707 −3* for Tim Skarke 1740 +1270'
Union Berlin:Mekhi Gray 1707 −3* for Tim Skarke 1740 +12 - 70'Mathis Albert 1866 −8* for Konstantinos Karetsas 2240 0
Borussia Dortmund:Mathis Albert 1866 −8* for Konstantinos Karetsas 2240 0 - Christopher Trimmel 1698 −6 for Janik Haberer 1852 +876'
Union Berlin:Christopher Trimmel 1698 −6 for Janik Haberer 1852 +8 - Aljoscha Kemlein 2019 +1 for András Schäfer 2133 +1276'
Union Berlin:Aljoscha Kemlein 2019 +1 for András Schäfer 2133 +12 - Linus Güther 1698 −7* for Woo-Yeong Jeong 1977 +1090+3'
Union Berlin:Linus Güther 1698 −7* for Woo-Yeong Jeong 1977 +10
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 14% · 19% · 68%(Union Berlin · draw · Borussia Dortmund)
Our most likely score was 1–2 (9%); the result 0–0 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Union Berlin €4.2M, Borussia Dortmund €34.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Bundesliga matchday 6: 313 points.
- Bundesliga: G. Kobel was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2475).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Bundesliga): Union Berlin ranked #18 of 18, Borussia Dortmund #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Union Berlin
16th in Bundesliga · 4 pts from 5
- 10 OctWSV Elversberg Bundesliga1932
- 18 SepLBayern München Bundesliga1906
- 11 SepLFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga1930
- 5 SepLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga1924
- 29 AugDEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga1914
Borussia Dortmund
2nd in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 5
- 14 OctLBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2272
- 9 OctDWerder Bremen Bundesliga2364
- 19 SepWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2361
- 12 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2306
- 8 SepWVillarreal UEFA Champions League2324
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 4 /5 | 35.0 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 17th |
| Borussia Dortmund | 13 /5 | 64.2 | 4% | 82% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Union Berlin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 2079

Borussia Dortmund · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2399
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Union Berlin: direct (how Mauro Lustrinelli plays) · Borussia Dortmund: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Niko Kovač plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.