Bundesliga · Regular Season - 8
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Union Berlin host 1. FC Köln on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Union Berlin 39%, draw 29%, 1. FC Köln 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Union Berlin €4.5M, 1. FC Köln €4.9M.
- Home advantage makes Union Berlin the favourite here: it adds 4 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Bundesliga): Union Berlin rank #16 of 18, 1. FC Köln #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Union Berlin goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Union Berlin 1944 · 1. FC Köln 1952
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Union Berlin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 (Good) · Elo 2133
1. FC Köln · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1897
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Union Berlin
17th in Bundesliga · 5 pts from 6
- 17 OctDBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga1949
- 10 OctWSV Elversberg Bundesliga1932
- 18 SepLBayern München Bundesliga1906
- 11 SepLFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga1930
- 5 SepLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga1924
1. FC Köln
12th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 6
- 16 OctLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga1936
- 11 OctWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga1919
- 19 SepLHamburger SV Bundesliga1946
- 12 SepDWerder Bremen Bundesliga1946
- 4 SepLVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga1956
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 5 /6 | 35.2 | 0% | <1% | 39% | 16th |
| 1. FC Köln | 7 /6 | 36.9 | 0% | <1% | 27% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · direct
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Union Berlin: direct (how Mauro Lustrinelli plays) · 1. FC Köln: balanced profile (how Rene Wagner plays)