1. Lig · Regular Season - 12
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 10:30 UTC
Ümraniyespor host Sivasspor on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (1. Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ümraniyespor 37%, draw 29%, Sivasspor 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ümraniyespor €238K, Sivasspor €371K.
- Home advantage makes Ümraniyespor the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in possession (1. Lig): Ümraniyespor rank #3 of 20, Sivasspor #17.
- Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ümraniyespor goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Ümraniyespor 1568 · Sivasspor 1640
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ümraniyespor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1538
Sivasspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1815
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ümraniyespor
15th in 1. Lig · 10 pts from 10
- 18 OctWVanspor FK Turkey 1 Lig1534
- 9 OctDSarıyer Turkey 1 Lig1518
- 18 SepWBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1506
- 12 SepLAntalyaspor Turkey 1 Lig1510
- 5 SepLPendikspor Turkey 1 Lig1561
Sivasspor
11th in 1. Lig · 13 pts from 11
- 17 OctDSarıyer Turkey 1 Lig1578
- 13 OctDBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1584
- 9 OctWPendikspor Turkey 1 Lig1588
- 19 SepDKeçiörengücü Turkey 1 Lig1591
- 13 SepDMuğlaspor Turkey 1 Lig1661
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 10 /10 | 41.5 | 0% | <1% | 28% | 17th |
| Sivasspor | 13 /11 | 50.1 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ümraniyespor: balanced profile (how Tayfun Rıdvan Albayrak plays) · Sivasspor: balanced profile (how İsmet Taşdemir plays)