1. Lig · Regular Season - 9
Ümraniyespor 1–1 Sarıyer
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, Istanbul
ÜmraniyesporTeam 1507SarıyerTeam 1586We gave Ümraniyespor 36% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 36% · 30% · 34%(Ümraniyespor · draw · Sarıyer)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Ümraniyespor €208K, Sarıyer €211K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (1. Lig): Ümraniyespor ranked #3 of 20, Sarıyer #18.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ümraniyespor
16th in 1. Lig · 6 pts from 8
- 18 SepWBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1506
- 12 SepLAntalyaspor Turkey 1 Lig1510
- 5 SepLPendikspor Turkey 1 Lig1561
- 28 AugDKeçiörengücü Turkey 1 Lig1521
- 8 AugDMardin 1969 Turkey 1 Lig1519
Sarıyer
5th in 1. Lig · 14 pts from 8
- 19 SepWBoluspor Turkey 1 Lig1661
- 11 SepDBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1596
- 5 SepLKeçiörengücü Turkey 1 Lig1607
- 28 AugWAntalyaspor Turkey 1 Lig1597
- 14 AugDEsenler Erokspor Turkey 1 Lig1637
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 6 /8 | 41.3 | 0% | <1% | 36% | 18th |
| Sarıyer | 14 /8 | 55.8 | 1% | 19% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ümraniyespor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1597
Sarıyer · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1810
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ümraniyespor: balanced profile (how Tayfun Albayrak plays) · Sarıyer: balanced profile (how Bülent Bölükbaşı plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.