Eredivisie · Regular Season - 12
Twente vs Ajax
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Twente host Ajax on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Twente 28%, draw 28%, Ajax 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Twente €3.5M, Ajax €6.7M.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2308).
- Twente's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Twente goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Twente 2000 · Ajax 2170
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Twente · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2127
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2231
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Twente
5th in Eredivisie · 17 pts from 9
- 22 OctWLincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Conference League2033
- 18 OctLUtrecht Eredivisie2056
- 15 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League2036
- 10 OctDFortuna Sittard Eredivisie2033
- 20 SepWPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie1981
Ajax
4th in Eredivisie · 18 pts from 9
- 22 OctWAtalanta UEFA Conference League2191
- 18 OctWGroningen Eredivisie2137
- 15 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League2076
- 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie2181
- 19 SepDExcelsior Eredivisie2179
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 17 /9 | 58.5 | 1% | 32% | 0% | 5th |
| Ajax | 18 /9 | 68.8 | 20% | 93% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Twente: balanced profile (how J. van den Brom plays) · Ajax: possession-based (how Michel plays)