Virsliga · Regular Season - 32
Tukums 0–2 Riga
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC
TukumsTeam 1257RigaTeam 1677- Reginaldo Ramires 9'
- M. Badamosi 62'
We gave Riga 64% to win: they did.
- K. Volkovs –8'Tukums:K. Volkovs –
- 9'Reginaldo Ramires –Riga:Reginaldo Ramires –
- 9'Reginaldo Ramires – (penalty missed) assist Reginaldo Ramires –Riga:Reginaldo Ramires – (penalty missed) assist Reginaldo Ramires –
- D. Valmiers –11'Tukums:D. Valmiers –
- K. Dislers25'Tukums:K. Dislers
- 30'A. Ankrah –Riga:A. Ankrah –
- 45'A. Salazar –Riga:A. Salazar –
- R. Melkis – for D. Valmiers –46'Tukums:R. Melkis – for D. Valmiers –
- 46'R. Aouani – for Caio Ferreira –Riga:R. Aouani – for Caio Ferreira –
- R. Deruzinskis –54'Tukums:R. Deruzinskis –
- 59'M. Badamosi – for Reginaldo Ramires –Riga:M. Badamosi – for Reginaldo Ramires –
- 62'M. Badamosi – assist S. Oulad M'Hand –Riga:M. Badamosi – assist S. Oulad M'Hand –
- K. Shigema – for M. Stals –67'Tukums:K. Shigema – for M. Stals –
- H. Joksts – for J. Toba –67'Tukums:H. Joksts – for J. Toba –
- 71'C. Saco – for A. Ankrah –Riga:C. Saco – for A. Ankrah –
- 71'R. Jurkovskis – for M. Tonisevs –Riga:R. Jurkovskis – for M. Tonisevs –
- E. Sprukts – for K. Klavins –77'Tukums:E. Sprukts – for K. Klavins –
- 80'S. Oulad M'Hand –Riga:S. Oulad M'Hand –
- 82'A. Taiwo – for S. Oulad M'Hand –Riga:A. Taiwo – for S. Oulad M'Hand –
- D. Kaira – for M. Derkach –86'Tukums:D. Kaira – for M. Derkach –
- 90+3'Iago Siqueira –Riga:Iago Siqueira –
Before kick-off (provisional): 15% · 22% · 64%(Tukums · draw · Riga)
Our most likely score was 0–2 (11%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tukums €143K, Riga €530K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Virsliga matchday 32: 420 points.
- Virsliga: O. Galo was the highest-rated midfielder (1842).
- Only 2 of Tukums' expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tukums
9th in Virsliga · 24 pts from 31
- 20 SepDGrobiņa Latvia Virsliga1250
- 10 SepLSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1257
- 29 AugLFS Jelgava Latvia Virsliga1237
- 30 MayLFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1271
- 25 MayLRīgas FS Latvia Virsliga1309
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 73 pts from 31
- 15 SepWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1620
- 7 SepDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1694
- 31 AugLFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1604
- 27 AugWKI Klaksvik UEFA Conference League1660
- 20 AugDKI Klaksvik UEFA Conference League1662
Season outlook
From the Virsliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 24 /31 | 28.0 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 9th |
| Riga | 73 /31 | 83.8 | 34% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1842
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –