League Two · Regular Season - 14
Tranmere vs Cheltenham
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Prenton Park, Birkenhead
Tranmere host Cheltenham on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tranmere 40%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tranmere €186K, Cheltenham €192K.
- Home advantage makes Tranmere the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Cheltenham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tranmere goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Tranmere 1572 · Cheltenham 1584
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tranmere · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1650
Cheltenham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tranmere
17th in League Two · 12 pts from 11
- 17 OctLBarnet England League Two1540
- 10 OctDRochdale England League Two1552
- 3 OctLChesterfield England League Two1572
- 26 SepDWalsall England League Two1574
- 22 SepWShrewsbury England EFL Trophy1543
Cheltenham
8th in League Two · 15 pts from 11
- 17 OctLOldham England League Two1538
- 13 OctDTottenham Hotspur U21 England EFL Trophy1585
- 10 OctLSalford City England League Two1560
- 3 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1627
- 26 SepWChesterfield England League Two1588
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 12 /11 | 54.8 | 0% | 2% | 23% | 22nd |
| Cheltenham | 15 /11 | 59.0 | <1% | 4% | 10% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tranmere: balanced profile (how Darrell James Clarke plays) · Cheltenham: direct (how Stephen John Cotterill plays)