Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
Toulouse host Estac Troyes on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Toulouse 47%, draw 28%, Estac Troyes 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Toulouse €5.2M, Estac Troyes €1.5M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Toulouse goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.8 pts
Team Elo: Toulouse 1841 · Estac Troyes 1773
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Toulouse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1842
Estac Troyes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1753
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Toulouse
11th in Ligue 1 · 9 pts from 7
- 16 OctWLe Mans Ligue 11921
- 10 OctDMonaco Ligue 11837
- 19 SepWLe Havre Ligue 11822
- 12 SepDLorient Ligue 11788
- 3 SepLLille Ligue 11845
Estac Troyes
17th in Ligue 1 · 4 pts from 7
- 17 OctLLens Ligue 11797
- 11 OctLMarseille Ligue 11811
- 19 SepLAngers Ligue 11782
- 13 SepLLille Ligue 11829
- 6 SepLStrasbourg Ligue 11841
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 9 /7 | 37.1 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 13th |
| Estac Troyes | 4 /7 | 28.8 | 0% | 0% | 66% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Toulouse: balanced profile (how Jens Berthel Askou plays) · Estac Troyes: dribble-heavy (how Stéphane Dumont plays)