Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 29
Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · BMO Field, Toronto
Toronto FCTeam 1769Orlando City SCTeam 1921- Martin Ojeda 45+1' (pen)
- Antoine Griezmann 76'
- Daryl Dike 83'
We gave Orlando City SC 37% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Lewis Morgan 1824 −2 assist Theo Corbeanu 1823 +126'Toronto FC:Lewis Morgan 1824 −2 assist Theo Corbeanu 1823 +1
- 45+1'Martin Ojeda 1995 −1 (pen.)Orlando City SC:Martin Ojeda 1995 −1 (pen.)
- Theo Corbeanu 1823 +1 assist Dániel Sallói 1813 −249'Toronto FC:Theo Corbeanu 1823 +1 assist Dániel Sallói 1813 −2
- Djordje Mihailovic 1866 −1 for Lewis Morgan 1824 −257'Toronto FC:Djordje Mihailovic 1866 −1 for Lewis Morgan 1824 −2
- Alonso 1828 066'Toronto FC:Alonso 1828 0
- 67'Daryl Dike 1828 0 for Harvey Graham Sarajian 1622 0Orlando City SC:Daryl Dike 1828 0 for Harvey Graham Sarajian 1622 0
- Benjamin Kuscevic 1852 −275'Toronto FC:Benjamin Kuscevic 1852 −2
- 76'Antoine Griezmann 2125 −8 assist Iago Teodoro 1731 −8*Orlando City SC:Antoine Griezmann 2125 −8 assist Iago Teodoro 1731 −8*
- Derrick Etienne Jr. 1684 −9* for Dániel Sallói 1813 −280'Toronto FC:Derrick Etienne Jr. 1684 −9* for Dániel Sallói 1813 −2
- 82'Vinicius Nogueira 1713 0Orlando City SC:Vinicius Nogueira 1713 0
- 83'Daryl Dike 1828 0 assist Iván Angulo 2091 −1Orlando City SC:Daryl Dike 1828 0 assist Iván Angulo 2091 −1
- Robin Lucius Fraser85'Toronto FC:Robin Lucius Fraser
- 85'Braian Ojeda 2006 −8* for Wilder Cartagena 1872 −4Orlando City SC:Braian Ojeda 2006 −8* for Wilder Cartagena 1872 −4
- Emilio Aristizábal 1574 −8* for Alonso 1828 088'Toronto FC:Emilio Aristizábal 1574 −8* for Alonso 1828 0
- Matheus Pereira de Souza 1755 089'Toronto FC:Matheus Pereira de Souza 1755 0
- 90+4'Zakaria Taifi 1733 0 for Eduard Atuesta 2000 −2Orlando City SC:Zakaria Taifi 1733 0 for Eduard Atuesta 2000 −2
- Richie Laryea 1900 −390+4'Toronto FC:Richie Laryea 1900 −3
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 32% · 30% · 37%(Toronto FC · draw · Orlando City SC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–3 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Toronto FC €1.3M, Orlando City SC €2.1M.
- Toronto FC were without 1 expected starter: W. Zimmerman (1769).
- Orlando City SC were without 1 expected starter: M. Pašalić (1967).
- Style contrast in chance creation (MLS): Toronto FC ranked #29 of 30, Orlando City SC #1.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Toronto FC
11th in MLS · 32 pts from 28
- 10 OctWCF Montreal MLS1810
- 27 SepLNashville SC MLS1766
- 20 SepLSt. Louis City MLS1786
- 12 SepLOrlando City SC MLS1789
- 9 SepWNashville SC MLS1796
Orlando City SC
7th in MLS · 37 pts from 28
- 10 OctWColumbus Crew MLS1943
- 26 SepLPhiladelphia Union MLS1927
- 19 SepLNew England Revolution MLS1964
- 12 SepWToronto FC MLS1909
- 9 SepWAtlanta United FC MLS1966
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 32 /28 | 37.8 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 27th |
| Orlando City SC | 37 /28 | 46.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Toronto FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1829
Orlando City SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2133
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Toronto FC: balanced profile (how Robin Lucius Fraser plays) · Orlando City SC: balanced profile (how Martín Perelman plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.