Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 32
Toronto FC vs DC United
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · BMO Field, Toronto
Toronto FC host DC United on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Toronto FC 42%, draw 29%, DC United 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Toronto FC €1.2M, DC United €1.3M.
- Home advantage makes Toronto FC the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Toronto FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Toronto FC 1805 · DC United 1840
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Toronto FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1929
DC United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1853
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Toronto FC
10th in MLS · 36 pts from 30
- 17 OctWNew York Red Bulls MLS1775
- 14 OctDOrlando City SC MLS1813
- 10 OctWCF Montreal MLS1810
- 27 SepLNashville SC MLS1766
- 20 SepLSt. Louis City MLS1786
DC United
12th in MLS · 33 pts from 29
- 17 OctLOrlando City SC MLS1864
- 14 OctWNew York Red Bulls MLS1837
- 10 OctLInter Miami MLS1832
- 27 SepDVancouver Whitecaps MLS1840
- 19 SepLCharlotte MLS1870
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 36 /30 | 39.7 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 22nd |
| DC United | 33 /29 | 38.8 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 27th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Toronto FC: balanced profile (how Robin Lucius Fraser plays) · DC United: direct · high-pressing (how René Weiler plays)