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Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 28

Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · BMO Field, Toronto

Toronto FC crestToronto FCTeam 1773
2–1
Full time
HT 0–0
CF Montreal crestCF MontrealTeam 1810

Match story

Toronto FC · draw · CF Montreal

Before kick-off: 41% · 29% · 30%

Live chances: Toronto FC 100%, draw 0%, CF Montreal 0% at 90+7'1' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 29%, CF Montreal 29%2' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 29%, CF Montreal 29%3' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 29%, CF Montreal 29%4' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 30%, CF Montreal 29%5' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 30%, CF Montreal 29%6' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 30%, CF Montreal 29%7' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 30%, CF Montreal 29%8' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 41%, draw 30%, CF Montreal 29%9' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 30%, CF Montreal 29%10' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 31%, CF Montreal 29%11' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 31%, CF Montreal 29%12' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 31%, CF Montreal 29%13' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 31%, CF Montreal 29%14' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 31%, CF Montreal 29%15' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 40%, draw 31%, CF Montreal 29%16' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 32%, CF Montreal 29%17' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 32%, CF Montreal 29%18' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 32%, CF Montreal 29%19' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 32%, CF Montreal 29%20' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 32%, CF Montreal 29%21' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 33%, CF Montreal 29%22' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 33%, CF Montreal 29%23' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 39%, draw 33%, CF Montreal 29%24' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 38%, draw 33%, CF Montreal 29%25' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 38%, draw 33%, CF Montreal 28%26' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 38%, draw 34%, CF Montreal 28%27' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 38%, draw 34%, CF Montreal 28%28' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 38%, draw 34%, CF Montreal 28%30' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 37%, draw 34%, CF Montreal 28%31' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 37%, draw 35%, CF Montreal 28%32' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 37%, draw 35%, CF Montreal 28%33' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 37%, draw 35%, CF Montreal 28%34' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 37%, draw 36%, CF Montreal 28%35' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 36%, draw 36%, CF Montreal 28%36' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 36%, draw 36%, CF Montreal 28%37' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 36%, draw 36%, CF Montreal 27%38' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 36%, draw 37%, CF Montreal 27%40' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 35%, draw 37%, CF Montreal 27%41' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 35%, draw 38%, CF Montreal 27%42' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 35%, draw 38%, CF Montreal 27%43' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 35%, draw 38%, CF Montreal 27%44' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 35%, draw 39%, CF Montreal 27%45' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 34%, draw 39%, CF Montreal 27%45+1' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 34%, draw 40%, CF Montreal 26%45+2' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 34%, draw 40%, CF Montreal 26%45+3' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 34%, draw 40%, CF Montreal 26%45+4' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 41%, CF Montreal 26%45+5' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 41%, CF Montreal 26%45+7' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 41%, CF Montreal 26%HT · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 41%, CF Montreal 26%47' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 41%, CF Montreal 26%48' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 41%, CF Montreal 26%49' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 33%, draw 42%, CF Montreal 26%50' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 32%, draw 42%, CF Montreal 25%51' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 32%, draw 43%, CF Montreal 25%52' · 0–0 · Toronto FC 32%, draw 44%, CF Montreal 25%53' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 11%, draw 26%, CF Montreal 64%54' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 10%, draw 26%, CF Montreal 64%55' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 10%, draw 26%, CF Montreal 65%56' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 10%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 65%57' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 9%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 66%58' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 9%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 66%59' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 9%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 67%60' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 8%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 67%61' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 8%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 68%62' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 8%, draw 24%, CF Montreal 68%63' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 7%, draw 24%, CF Montreal 69%64' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 7%, draw 24%, CF Montreal 69%65' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 7%, draw 24%, CF Montreal 70%66' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 6%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 70%67' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 6%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 71%68' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 6%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 71%69' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 6%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 72%70' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 5%, draw 22%, CF Montreal 72%71' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 5%, draw 22%, CF Montreal 73%72' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 5%, draw 22%, CF Montreal 74%73' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 4%, draw 21%, CF Montreal 74%74' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 4%, draw 21%, CF Montreal 75%75' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 4%, draw 20%, CF Montreal 76%76' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 4%, draw 20%, CF Montreal 77%77' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 3%, draw 19%, CF Montreal 77%78' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 3%, draw 19%, CF Montreal 78%79' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 3%, draw 18%, CF Montreal 79%80' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 3%, draw 18%, CF Montreal 80%81' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 2%, draw 17%, CF Montreal 81%82' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 2%, draw 16%, CF Montreal 81%83' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 2%, draw 16%, CF Montreal 82%84' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 2%, draw 15%, CF Montreal 83%85' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 1%, draw 14%, CF Montreal 84%86' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 1%, draw 13%, CF Montreal 85%87' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 1%, draw 13%, CF Montreal 86%88' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 1%, draw 12%, CF Montreal 88%89' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 1%, draw 11%, CF Montreal 89%90' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 1%, draw 9%, CF Montreal 90%90+1' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 0%, draw 8%, CF Montreal 91%90+2' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 0%, draw 7%, CF Montreal 93%90+3' · 0–1 · Toronto FC 0%, draw 6%, CF Montreal 94%90+4' · 1–1 · Toronto FC 4%, draw 93%, CF Montreal 3%90+6' · 2–1 · Toronto FC 99%, draw 1%, CF Montreal 0%90+7' · 2–1 · Toronto FC 100%, draw 0%, CF Montreal 0%

Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Toronto FC 41% to win: they did.

  1. 23'Toronto FC:William Yarbrough 1460 +47* for Luka Gavran 1794 −5*
  2. 51'CF Montreal:Daniel Rios 1823 −36*
  3. 55'CF Montreal:Brayan Vera 1842 −18*
  4. 61'Toronto FC:Djordje Mihailovic 1866 −1* for Jonathan Osorio 1670 −2*
  5. 72'CF Montreal:Samuel Piette 1649 −11* for Victor Loturi 1852 −16*
  6. 72'CF Montreal:Fabian Herbers 1699 −12* for Alexis Sanchez 1747 −21*
  7. 82'Toronto FC:Lewis Morgan 1825 −7* for Alonso 1829 +2*
  8. 84'CF Montreal:Brandan Craig 1724 −9*
  9. 86'CF Montreal:Wikelman·Carmona 1867 −8* for Daniel Rios 1823 −36*
  10. 86'CF Montreal:Efrain Morales 1763 −8* for Brandan Craig 1724 −9*
  11. 87'CF Montreal:Luca Petrasso 1817 −16*
  12. 90+3'Toronto FC:Lewis Morgan 1825 −7* assist Niklas Dorsch 1894 +13*
  13. 90+5'Toronto FC:Djordje Mihailovic 1866 −1* assist Theo Corbeanu 1823 +24*
  14. 90+6'Toronto FC:Richie Laryea 1903 −4*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations3-4-2-1
GL. Gavran1794−5*
DR. Laryea1903−4*
DN. Gomis1779+28*
DB. Kuscevic1854+17*
DMatheus Pereira1755+6*
MN. Dorsch1894+13*
MD. Sallói1815+2*
MAlonso Coello1829+2*
FT. Corbeanu1823+24*
FJ. Sargent1881+1*
FJ. Osorio1670−2*
CR. Fraser1833+12*
GS. Breza1778−13*
DJ. Neal1835−17*
DB. Craig1724−9*
DB. Vera1842−18*
MD. Bugaj1774−13*
MV. Loturi1852−16*
MM. Longstaff1816−16*
ML. Petrasso1817−16*
MD. Ríos1823−36*
MA. Sánchez1747−21*
FP. Owusu1857−21*
CPhilippe Eullaffroy1731−11*
Before kick-off: 41% · 29% · 30%(Toronto FC · draw · CF Montreal)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Toronto FC €1.4M, CF Montreal €1.1M.
  • Toronto FC were without 1 expected starter: W. Zimmerman (1769).
  • Home advantage made Toronto FC the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Toronto FC

13th in MLS · 29 pts from 27

  • 27 SepLNashville SC 1766
  • 20 SepLSt. Louis City 1786
  • 12 SepLOrlando City SC 1789
  • 9 SepWNashville SC 1796
  • 5 SepDChicago Fire 1779

CF Montreal

15th in MLS · 24 pts from 27

  • 26 SepWFC Cincinnati 1802
  • 19 SepLColumbus Crew 1765
  • 13 SepLColorado Rapids 1794
  • 9 SepLCharlotte 1843
  • 5 SepLPhiladelphia Union 1777

Season outlook

From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Toronto FC29 /2736.50%0%34%28th
CF Montreal24 /2731.30%0%88%29th
Toronto FC
CF Montreal

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Major League Soccer

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello

Toronto FC · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1827

J. Neal
J. Neal

CF Montreal · +2.5 (Good) · Elo 1852

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Robin Lucius Fraser

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Philippe Eullaffroy

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Toronto FC: balanced profile (how Robin Lucius Fraser plays) · CF Montreal: balanced profile (how Philippe Eullaffroy plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.